99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?

TripleH68 · #1 09-13-2005, 11:28 AM

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Button is new to the table, but I want to think he is aggressive given his image(baby with pokerstars knit cap).
BB is aggressive 27/14/1.8 and I put him on a wide range.
UTG has a high WTSD% of 42, with VP$IP = 37 over a short sample.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 2 folds, Button raises, SB calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button caps, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (12 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls...

Please comment on all streets. Oh and I normally raise 99 preflop, but something here told me to play for set value. I had been raising a lot preflop and was starting to get played back at quite a bit in this game. Looking back at the table being 8 handed I think this was a mistake. Thoughts?

brettbrettr · #2 09-13-2005, 11:36 AM

You really need to raise this pre-flop. If you're been raising often and people are more likely to play back at you then they're more likely to play back at you with hands that you do well against. If someone 3 bets you with AJ or AT or KQ, realize that they're going to most often narrow the field which adds a ton of value to your hand and lets you play without playing for set value.

I guess the hand looks fine, otherwise. I'm not sure about the flop call, but I guess its fine given your reads.

#3 09-13-2005, 11:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Button is new to the table, but I want to think he is aggressive given his image(baby with pokerstars knit cap).
BB is aggressive 27/14/1.8 and I put him on a wide range.
UTG has a high WTSD% of 42, with VP$IP = 37 over a short sample.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 2 folds, Button raises, SB calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button caps, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (12 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls...

Please comment on all streets. Oh and I normally raise 99 preflop, but something here told me to play for set value. I had been raising a lot preflop and was starting to get played back at quite a bit in this game. Looking back at the table being 8 handed I think this was a mistake. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
In this spot with just one limper in front of me, and im in middle position I usually raise preflop, but limping for set value isnt a horrible idea either given the fact that you are still in early middle position. And youre right as far as being in an 8 player game means you have even more incentive to raise here. In the long run it shouldnt matter much how you play 99 in this spot, so I wouldnt worry about how you played preflop, you seem to have a good understanding of how to play 99 preflop anyways so lets move on. On the flop, your check and call play is standard in my opinion since even if youre trailing you have the odds to see one more, and if you somehow do have the best hand a bet by you will not likely fold anyone is this huge pot, and youll probably get raised by a better hand anyways so just pay one small bet to see the turn. I would check the turn and fold if the button bets, but the button checked so lets go to the river. Should you call or not? What hand does the utg guy have? I have no idea. What I do know is that the utg is betting this river with 4 opponents yet to act in this large pot. Which means if he is sane, he cannot be bluffing in this spot, he must have a hand that he believes will win if hes called. I think you can safely fold in this spot even given the large pot odds. Also if you did think the utg was capable of a crazy bluff like this or capable of betting a very weak hand in this spot, you should consider raising to shut out anyone with a better hand than you. In a large pot like this, investing two big bets to potentially fold a better hand is worth it as long as you think the initial bettor is capable of betting a weaker hand than you. So I would fold the river, but i dont think calling is all that bad. You really didnt make any huge mistake in this hand. Next time raise preflop.

molawn2mo · #4 09-13-2005, 01:29 PM

wow....

preflop is playable either as a limp or a raise

flop seems a clear bet to me in the hope that aggressive button will raise and clear the field. check calling the flop in order to wait for a non-threatening turn card seems ill-advised (any over, any 2 flush card, any 2 or any 8 are threats).

when the perfect card turns, bet!

the river is close to a raise, imho. utg looks like he may be taking a stab at it with everyone showing such weakness.

KDawgCometh · #5 09-13-2005, 01:47 PM

I don't like the thought of playing 99 for set value there is ever really worth it. IMO its too strong of a hand to not raise and do your best to get it HU against the limper.

I think a turn bet could have some value. Probably no one will fold, but if you can get a hand like AK, AJ, JJ, or 1010 to possibly fold, then we did something good

ErrantNight · #6 09-13-2005, 01:52 PM

i'd have raised preflop.

easy flop peel.

like how that turn played out.

not so sure about the river. i think you're beat a lot here, but pot is huge, etc. etc. i'm assuming you wouldn't overcall... still, what do you put UTG on? and as aggressive as the BB is... how many hands is that read on? because he's not too far out of line.

ErrantNight · #7 09-13-2005, 01:57 PM

why would you want to bet the flop and clear the field to be headsup when there's a big overcard on board and if you're not behind already, your opponents certainly have outs against you?

plus, this pot is huge, and even a bet/raise isn't necessarily likely to clear things up. the only reason to see the turn is that this is 1:23 coming back to you. you're peeling for a miracle here, and the implied odds from your hit will help offset any loss.

when the turn drops, i'm assuming hero was planning to check/fold to a bet. when it gets checked through...

i'm assuming UTG has a non AQ hand with a Q in it. the pot is big enough, and the two preflop aggressors have slowed down to the point where it's reasonable to assume they have unimproved overs (or, less likely, but possible, JJ or TT). since they may not overcall, and the pot is large, a call seems pretty close here. UTG probably expects to be called, however. the question is whether he bets a pair that isn't a Q to lead the river.

JTMoney42 · #8 09-13-2005, 01:59 PM

Although I don't agree with the preflop play, it has its merit i guess, I just love 9's too much to limp, esp. in that situation. but on the flop, I think you get a perfect chance to bet into the capper, which will probably allow you to cut most of the people out.I think you need to bet the turn as well, and probably fold to a raise on the turn.

The river, it looks like the UTG came alive, probably with his 8 or a middle pair. So the river seems like a fine check/call, you can't raise him here I don't think because the BB is still to act, although its tempting.

molawn2mo · #9 09-13-2005, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
why would you want to bet the flop and clear the field to be headsup when there's a big overcard on board and if you're not behind already, your opponents certainly have outs against you?

plus, this pot is huge, and even a bet/raise isn't necessarily likely to clear things up. the only reason to see the turn is that this is 1:23 coming back to you. you're peeling for a miracle here, and the implied odds from your hit will help offset any loss.

when the turn drops, i'm assuming hero was planning to check/fold to a bet. when it gets checked through...

i'm assuming UTG has a non AQ hand with a Q in it. the pot is big enough, and the two preflop aggressors have slowed down to the point where it's reasonable to assume they have unimproved overs (or, less likely, but possible, JJ or TT). since they may not overcall, and the pot is large, a call seems pretty close here. UTG probably expects to be called, however. the question is whether he bets a pair that isn't a Q to lead the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why the lone Q on the flop is discouraging to you. This is much better than average flop for hero. The 2 villains are aggro. I don't want to get too deep into this hand if I'm behind yet I want to narrow the field so as to lessen the likelihood of being outdrawn. So I will invest 2 SB on the flop to reduce the field.

Check calling the flop just invites getting outdrawn on the big streets if we happen to be good at the moment.

As played. on the turn, this seems like a clear value bet to me (you may have some small fold equity here, too). Villain, holding a Q, ought be betting the turn.

ErrantNight · #10 09-13-2005, 02:15 PM

it's been capped preflop a billion ways. please explain to me how betting, even if it's followed by a raise, is going to prevent you from getting drawn out on
[edited to add: assuming you were going to get drawn out on by checking], if you're not already behind.