Weak top pair and then an overcard turns

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]
If you check and he bets you lose 1 BB about 80% of the time.

If you bet and he calls you win 1 BB about 40% of the time, lose 1 BB about 40% of the time, and he folds about 20% of the time.

If you check then he checks you win probably 70% of the time.

So I think it is a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you can draw this conclusion from those percentages. First off, the %'s given are complete estimations (if you have hand ranges to back these %'s up, please provide them). Second off, unless you have the conditional probability of him betting if you check, the above numbers can't even be used in a math equation to justify your conclusion.