Weak top pair and then an overcard turns

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]
If you check and he bets you lose 1 BB about 80% of the time.

If you bet and he calls you win 1 BB about 40% of the time, lose 1 BB about 40% of the time, and he folds about 20% of the time.

If you check then he checks you win probably 70% of the time.

So I think it is a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you can draw this conclusion from those percentages. First off, the %'s given are complete estimations (if you have hand ranges to back these %'s up, please provide them). Second off, unless you have the conditional probability of him betting if you check, the above numbers can't even be used in a math equation to justify your conclusion.

[jph0424]

The OP said "villian is your typical 40/5/1 3/6 6-max calling station." And to call the flop and turn on this board I put him on one of the following hands. 22, 44, 55, 66, 76, 75, 87, 97, T7, J7, Q7, K7, low possibility of an Ax because even an aggro factor of one will raise with TP on this board most of the time, and the obvious other hand he could be playing are diamonds which an LP would check behind anyway. I just don't think we are up against an A, J, or stronger 7 as much as we are a low pp or a weaker 7 and that is why i think i bet this.

p.s.- The percentages were approximations and I shouldn't do that without backing it up.