what's the best turn play here?

[mike l.]

i have AsTs utg in a decent but not terrific 20-40 game 9 handed. i consider calling, and consider folding, but openraise instead. 3 good players cold call, 1 crummy short stacked player calls, bb calls.

the flop is Td8d5s. bb checks, i bet, 2 of the good players call, crummy cutoff calls, bb folds. 4 of us now.

the turn is 3s. what's my best play and how close is it between that and my other options and why?

[brad]

imho not even close just bet.

dont give free cards.

thouht question what top/top nut flush to go for checkraise with? AQ? more i think more only cr turn AK

plus charge flop flush draw and if u get raised u got some wiggle room if u 3 bet with the worse hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[elysium]

hi mike
check-call the flop; check-raise the CO on the turn. the MP's will fold, and you should have the lead.

[hutz]

I'm with brad -- bet. You have too much to lose from giving a free card to overcards or a diamond draw.

By the way, I don't generally think of someone who calls an UTG raise cold from MP as a particularly good player.

[elysium]

hi mike
i didn't see you pick up the flush draw on the turn. definately go for the turn check-raise. this draw infested board will not be checked down. if it's only one bettor to you, even though you have a draw to the nuts, you don't mind getting it heads up. however, if you get called by many, you don't mind that either. and if you get reraised, you can cap this with no problem. great check-raising opportunity. but even without the flush draw you can check-raise the turn. it's a little more dicey, but the button will often bet inthis situation. without the draw, if the bet came from your imm. left, you should then call of course. but with the draw, you have a terrific check-raise; couldn't be better. well worth the risk of allowing the free-card. there are certain opponents that you wouldn't check-raise, but not these. and remember,; even when the bet comes from the button and you know that if you raise one or both MP's will drop out, still go for the check-raise. your hand plays very well heads up too.

also notice that since your hand can improve, the free-card doesn't hurt you that badly. that's the kind of free-card risk to take by the way; a risk in pot size and not the pot. perfect turn check-raise opportunity.

[pudley4]

Is the short-stacked player very close to being all-in? And is he likely to bet if checked to? Many players will throw in their last few chips just because they only have a few chips left, and they kinda-sorta have a hand that might win. If he's this type of player, definitely go for the check-raise.

[J.A.Sucker]

Bet again. You can withstand any raises behind you, since you now have the nut flush draw. You are betting for value here, mike. If you get raised and then there are some callers, then maybe you reraise. If it's just headusp, which it will likely be, then just call.

If they have flush draws or JJ, then you are gonna have to play on. If they have AK/AQ, then be gracious enough to let them draw to 2 outs (or less) for the full price.

The best reason for betting is that crummy player will keep things from getting too out of control, since I assume he's a calling station. Good players will realize that bluffing a calling station is fruitless, so you'll know exactly where you stand.

This is just my opinion, but I'm Just Another Sucker.

[J.A.Sucker]

There are very loose, aggressive games where it is close between calling and reraising with a pair like 99, TT, and JJ when raising will get you headsup with a tough player and calling will make for a huge, multiway pot with many bad players. I frequently play in games where this is the case, and would expect that pocket pairs will be in there with mike.

This is another reason that mike should bet. A pair like 99 will call him down if his position vs the field is correct (say he's closing the action from the "good players" in the hand). Hell, they might even raise him one time. Even if the dude hit his set, then mike isn't completely dead, and this contributes to why he should bet.

[mikelow]

I'm going for three bets on the turn. Even if it's raised and it's now just headup. Will have to decide on the river
if I don't improve.

[pilchard]

Preflop you raise and get three coldcallers. Nobody three bets. JJ is a slight possibility but you would think QQ, KK or AA would 3 bet.

On the flop you bet and the three behind just call in a multiway pot which was raised preflop.

When the turn brings what looks like a complete blank and the added bonus of the nut flush draw the odds are you have the best hand and if someone was either slowplaying a set or misplaying a bigger pair you are still in ok shape.

What you do not want to see happen is a free card and a non spade J,Q,K (or a diamond come down). I would just bet. If you get raised you are still in decent shape. There is no guarantee anyone will bet given that the turn card will not have helped most coldcalling preflop hands.