#11
|
|||
|
|||
Re: QQ vs Zeejustin - 2nd hand of Party Super Tuesday
I think its a push, good fold equity and you could get a call from utg with a lower pair as its party [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
|
#12
|
|||
|
|||
Results
First plan was to reraise and fold to a push, but I just don't have enough chips to do that. I pushed, ZJ called after a couple seconds and his aces held up. I was really hoping to at least get to say I finished in last place in the tournament but I wasn't even close (1109/1121). Oh well, try harder next time I guess.
Steve |
#13
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Results
Saw this coming a mile away. QQ early in tourney is a 'piece of cheese' (T.J) against a raise like that coming from a solid player. Too much wishful thinking in this thread.
|
#14
|
|||
|
|||
Re: QQ vs Zeejustin - 2nd hand of Party Super Tuesday
Pushing seems like the worst possible move here. Is ZJ loose enough to where he's re-raising AK/AQ/AJ/JJ/TT/99 in the second hand of the tourney, with position, against an UTG raiser and a good solid caller? The fact that he's in position makes it even more likely he has a good hand. Why would he want to break his chances at winning a huge pot with JJ-99 by re-raising and seeing UTG push allin over the top?
The advice in this thread is shockingly bad. I don't know how ZJ plays, but if he is at all sane, he has AA-QQ/AK, with heavy weight given to AA-KK. |
#15
|
|||
|
|||
Re: QQ vs Zeejustin - 2nd hand of Party Super Tuesday
Very good post, well thought out. I would have folded probably.
|
#16
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
I pushed, ZJ called after a couple seconds and his aces held up. [/ QUOTE ] Gotta love the AA slowroll. |
#17
|
|||
|
|||
Re: QQ vs Zeejustin - 2nd hand of Party Super Tuesday
[ QUOTE ]
Very good post, well thought out. I would have folded probably. [/ QUOTE ] Folding can't be right. There's about 350 in there now and if you're that sure ZJ has aces/kings, then you will (99% of the time) stack him (and/or the other guy) when you flop a queen. Steve P.S. If you think you won't stack him when you flop a set and he flops an overpair then just call and play it like you would a set unless an A/K flops. |
#18
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I pushed, ZJ called after a couple seconds and his aces held up. [/ QUOTE ] Gotta love the AA slowroll. [/ QUOTE ] I had no problem with it, there was another guy still to act so he may be trying to convince him to call too. Steve |
#19
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Results
Oh yea, good point.
|
#20
|
|||
|
|||
Re: QQ vs Zeejustin - 2nd hand of Party Super Tuesday
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing seems like the worst possible move here. Is ZJ loose enough to where he's re-raising AK/AQ/AJ/JJ/TT/99 in the second hand of the tourney, with position, against an UTG raiser and a good solid caller? The fact that he's in position makes it even more likely he has a good hand. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know how loose he is but I assume he's quite aggressive. He also will know that there's a lot of loose play early in these, so he doesn't necessarily need AA/KK/AK. [ QUOTE ] Why would he want to break his chances at winning a huge pot with JJ-99 by re-raising and seeing UTG push allin over the top? [/ QUOTE ] It avoids a potentially very difficult decision in pots where he flops an overpair, he thinks he has the best hand, he may get a better hand to fold later (eg TT/JJ on an A or K high flop). I don't know but aren't those all possible? [ QUOTE ] The advice in this thread is shockingly bad. I don't know how ZJ plays, but if he is at all sane, he has AA-QQ/AK, with heavy weight given to AA-KK. [/ QUOTE ] Note that I'm only a 1.5-1 underdog vs AA-KK, AK and I'm getting 1.27-1, so even if that is his entire range it's not THAT bad. ChipEV = 2/5*1230 + 3/5*(-955) = -81. If he folds AK to my push, then 16 times I win 375 (145+145+45+15+10) and 12 times he calls with AA/KK. Of those 12, I win 1230 chips ~2.2 times and lose 955 chips ~9.8 times. So chipEV = 16/28*375 + 2.2/28*1230 - 9.8/28*955 = -21. This range seems like the worst case scenario to me. If you add anymore hands, the push is profitable. (That's not to say it's the best play). Steve |
|
|