109 Party SnG - How bad is this call on the flop?

[glengarry]

I think it's a good call, very good using liberal assumptions. The main pot is 1860 and you have to pay 680 to call, so you need a 36% chance to justify the call, plus add on the benefit of having a large stack in a SNG. There are too many combinations of holdings to go through, but in general:

1) your best scenario: UTG has top pair/overpair with no flush draw (e.g. AKo), or a bluff, and MP has only a flush draw. What are the chances? You have no read on these players. I'd say 40-50% based on UTG's overbet. You'll probably win approx 55-60% in this scenario, so give yourself 30% at most, more conservatively 25%.

2) scenario that happened: let's say this is 20% likely (I think that's too high, because you have to figure at least one of them for one diamond). You'll win approx. 70% of these, so give yourself 14%

3) one of them already has a flush: I think at least 30% and you are drawing dead.

total: 39-44%. Worth it, plus the table image.