Did I screw this one up?

[The Bear]

Playing in a loose, passive 3/6 game at Pacific Poker. I raise UTG w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. EP three-bets. Cutoff calls three cold (not surprising; he plays virtually any two suited cards), BB calls two, I call.

Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Solid flop for my hand, but very dangerous. BB checks, I consider a bet here, hoping for EP to raise and drive out at least one of the players behind me, but instead decide to check. EP bets, LP disconnects and is folded, BB calls, I call (I thought about check-raising here, but decide that I'd rather see a safe turn card and check-raise there, charging more for the draws).

Turn is a non-threatening 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

BB checks, I check (planning to check-raise), EP checks, and my plan is foiled.

Thankfully, the river bricks with the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

BB apparently likes his hand now and bets out. He only has about $3 left in front of him. I strongly believe that I have the best hand and don't think that EP will overcall, so I raise his last $3. He calls and turns over 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Any suggestions as to how I could have played this better? Bet out at the flop? Bet out on the turn? These are easily the most difficult situations in poker for me and I'd love to improve my play here.

[rkiray]

I would bet or checkraise the flop and then bet the turn.

[Uston]

Figure the EP has AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, or AQ (reasonable assumptions?). Assuming that he would check the turn with AK 80% of the time, check JJ 40% of the time, and always bet with AA, KK, and QQ, the way you played it assures that you won't win much when you're good but will lose a ton when you're not.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Solid flop for my hand, but very dangerous. BB checks, I consider a bet here, hoping for EP to raise and drive out at least one of the players behind me, but instead decide to check. EP bets, LP disconnects and is folded, BB calls, I call (I thought about check-raising here, but decide that I'd rather see a safe turn card and check-raise there, charging more for the draws).

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that this flop is not dangerous. Someone with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] could have you drawing rather thin and someone (maybe the big blind) could have Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. If someone does have JT then it will cost you a bit (except when you catch runner runner) but for now your hand looks like it will be good. What you cannot afford to do if give someone with AJ or the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] a free card. If you are going to call a bet then bet. If you bet and get raised, 3 bet. With this board he could well be looking for a free card for a draw.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is a non-threatening 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

BB checks, I check (planning to check-raise), EP checks, and my plan is foiled.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is bad. Check raising can be good, but if you're not 100% sure an opponent will bet you really have to bet it out. You gave him the option of a free card, which he's likely to take unless he has a strong hand and in which case you're check raising the best hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Thankfully, the river bricks with the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

BB apparently likes his hand now and bets out. He only has about $3 left in front of him. I strongly believe that I have the best hand and don't think that EP will overcall, so I raise his last $3. He calls and turns over 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

If you strongly believe you have the best hand here then why didn't on the flop and turn ? Every card that comes makes your hand weaker.

If you'd bet on the turn he would done one of 2 things.
1) Folded and thus not outdrawn you.
2) Called and made a mistake by doing so when the odds of him improving did not justify the call.

Either way you win off his play.

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree that this flop is not dangerous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wrote "Solid flop for my hand, but VERY DANGEROUS". I was aware that this was a dangerous flop; that's exactly why I played my hand like I did.

[ QUOTE ]
If you are going to call a bet then bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't necesarilly agree w/ this. The preflop 3-better will fire at the flop almost every time here, so I'm not risking a free card and I have the option to check-raise if I'd like to. Regardless, I still think I should have bet and hoped that he raised.

Turn Play:

[ QUOTE ]
Check raising can be good, but if you're not 100% sure an opponent will bet you really have to bet it out. You gave him the option of a free card, which he's likely to take unless he has a strong hand and in which case you're check raising the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right here. Although many people would take a second shot at the pot in this situation, I probably should have pulled the trigger to avoid the free card.

If I had known that the BB had 44, I clearly would have bet out, but I can't put him on a hand like that. I thought he had a draw and I was trying to make him make a mistake by calling two bets on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
If you strongly believe you have the best hand here then why didn't on the flop and turn ? Every card that comes makes your hand weaker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely disagree w/ this. The action is what makes me think that I have the best hand. With EP's turn check, there is no doubt that I'm beating him. And when it checked all the way through on the turn, the BB could have decided to bet his QJ or 9T for value on the river. Or he might put both of us on AK or AJ and be making a play at the pot. I really doubt he has JT, but if he does, I can live with it. By the river, I can conclude with much more certainty that my hand is good.

I think everyone is right. I played this hand weak. I should have fired at the flop and played from there.

Thanks for the comments.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
I wrote "Solid flop for my hand, but VERY DANGEROUS". I was aware that this was a dangerous flop; that's exactly why I played my hand like I did.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad I completely misread what you said as not very dangerous instead of but very dangerous. Disregard.

[ QUOTE ]

I don't necesarilly agree w/ this. The preflop 3-better will fire at the flop almost every time here, so I'm not risking a free card and I have the option to check-raise if I'd like to. Regardless, I still think I should have bet and hoped that he raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting is nearly always better than calling. You want to be in control not be the one who is being controlled. If you bet and he raises he's probably telling you he can beat top pair top kicker. Just calling his bet doesn't tell you anything; he could have flopped a monster but could also have very little. Don't automatically check to the raiser when you have a good hand hoping to check raise. There could be a draw out there and you want to do whatever you can to get them out. Bet, if he raises, 3 bet. Even if you do have the second best hand at the moment but can get rid of the other 2 you have increased your chances of winning the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
If I had known that the BB had 44, I clearly would have bet out, but I can't put him on a hand like that. I thought he had a draw and I was trying to make him make a mistake by calling two bets on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you want him to make a mistake by calling 2 bets you HAVE to bet. He acts before you and so if you check raise he will already called the first bet and won't be making a mistake. If you bet and hope the flop bettor raises then maybe you can get him to make a mistake by calling but thats only if your read is right and he is on a draw.

[ QUOTE ]
I completely disagree w/ this. The action is what makes me think that I have the best hand. With EP's turn check, there is no doubt that I'm beating him. And when it checked all the way through on the turn, the BB could have decided to bet his QJ or 9T for value on the river. Or he might put both of us on AK or AJ and be making a play at the pot. I really doubt he has JT, but if he does, I can live with it. By the river, I can conclude with much more certainty that my hand is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

You played this hand slowly, you haven't bet once with it. This hand demands to be played quickly, there are many ways of you being outdrawn. His turn check probably tells you he doesn't have anything like JT or a flopped 2 pair. However, the river has awoken him from being passively calling to betting. He might be bluffing or it might genuinely have helped him. Either way the simple fact is you cannot say with any certainty that your hand is good.

[Magikist]

Considering all the flop options, I think your first instinct to bet out is the best. It gives you a lot of flexibility - to 3-bet a raise, or to smoothcall and bet out again on the turn after you see what comes. The latter play may be especially appropriate, since I think you could fold safely to a raise there.

That said, I think going for the check-raise is not a bad idea, and your plan simply went awry. Bad luck, what can you say?

Bad players chase their pocket-pair two-outers habitually and obsessively - it may very well be that nothing you could have done would have got that guy out, and you may have ended up saving yourself money in this particular instance.

[PreyOnU]

You had top pair top kicker with a flush draw out (and you missed the chance to distinguish by the turn whether EP had a pair of queens beat or was on a flush draw--luckily he came out and told you), and you were to the right of the pre-flop raiser... check-raising, even if it didn't get checked around, would have only put 1 bet to everyone, and they would have already called 1 bet... the only chance of making them call 2 is to bet into the preflop raiser and hope for his likely cooperation. His actions there and on the turn map out yours.

As for the big blind, sure he may be an idiot for calling 2 cold pre-flop... but then he paid $3 to see 2 more cards and hit his 2-outer vs. top pair-top kicker... (A 22-1 dog after the turn saw the river for free!!!) If I expected that kinda post-flop action, I'd call a cap cold with pocket deuces at your table.

Every dollar you lose to the fish gets split evenly amongst the solid players... and you actually have to "work" to get it back.. bleh.