Why SNGs have MORE variance than ring games

[TheNoodleMan]

I think this is overly simplistic. Many SNG players with smaller ROIs (10% and under) achieve their results via weak bubble play and limping into 3rd, which greatly reduces their varience.

[AleoMagus]

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I think this is overly simplistic. Many SNG players with smaller ROIs (10% and under) achieve their results via weak bubble play and limping into 3rd, which greatly reduces their varience

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Yes, players who squeak ITM a lot will have lower variance but actually not by much at all

Just as an example, consider the following two $11 SNG players, with a 1000 game sample

Player A
1st 175
2nd 125
3rd 75

Player B
1st 75
2nd 125
3rd 250

Player A is agressive and only has an ITM of 37.5% but has a solid ROI of 27.27%. His SD is $19.60/t or, about 1.78 buy-ins

Player B is gets ITM more often with an ITM of 45% but has a weak ROI of only 13.64%. His SD is somewhat lower thanks to his style of play, at only $15.61/t, or about 1.42 buy-ins.

So yeah, I guess player B has a lower variance, but who is going to feel a 1 SD downswing more:

Player A, who would be down 19.60 from his usual profit of $3?

or Player B, who would be down 15.61 from his usual profit of $1.50?

It will take player A, on average, another 5-6 tourneys to recover from this

It will take player B, on average, another 9-10 tourneys to recover

Keep in mind also, that these two example players are pretty extreme in my opinion.

What it really comes down to is that your Standard deviation is not as important as your Standard deviation divided by profit

Regards
Brad S