#1
|
|||
|
|||
I think this is right.
Hold-em Post flop.
You're holding J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 25 in the pot (heads up) and opp bets $60, all in. You're sitting with 12 outs (maybe discount to 11) and 1.4-1 pot odds to call an all-in better (heads up). Easy call, right? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: I think this is right.
it's not such an "easy" call. i think this is slightly +EV, something like your expected profit if you call is $0.50. so it is a call, but it's not a huge money maker.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: I think this is right.
mosdef, are you really an actuary?
Oh and btw, you have to call this everytime unless you have a really good reason to believe he has a flopped set... in which case it would be -EV to call....Also if he holds Kd and has an Ace or Queen as his sidecard, it would be slightly -EV to call as well... |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: I think this is right.
This is kind of a thread hijacking since the title goes along fine with my very easy query. So . . . I am just trying to determine what percentage of all hands the following are.
AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 77 66 55 44 = 66 ways AKo AQo AJo ATo A9o A8o A7o A6o A5o A4o = 160 ways AKs AQs AJs ATs A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s = 48 ways KQo KJo KTo K9o K8o K7o = 96 ways KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s = 36 QJo QTo = 32 ways QJs QTs Q9s = 12 ways JTo = 16 ways JTs J9s = 8 ways T9s = 4 ways For a total of 478 ways. So that means... 478 / 1326 = ~36% of all hands? |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: I think this is right.
i call
you will usually make money but even if you dont playing the marginal hands helps your image unless you were on a low bankroll i would call this |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: I think this is right.
[ QUOTE ]
This is kind of a thread hijacking since the title goes along fine with my very easy query. So . . . I am just trying to determine what percentage of all hands the following are. AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 77 66 55 44 = 66 ways AKo AQo AJo ATo A9o A8o A7o A6o A5o A4o = 160 ways [/ QUOTE ] I think this is wrong...it should be 120 ways...I think you accidently also counted the hands that would be Axs [ QUOTE ] AKs AQs AJs ATs A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s = 48 ways KQo KJo KTo K9o K8o K7o = 96 ways [/ QUOTE ] I think you counted the Kxs hands again... Im pretty sure it should be 72 ways... [ QUOTE ] KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s = 36 QJo QTo = 32 ways [/ QUOTE ] 24 ways... [ QUOTE ] QJs QTs Q9s = 12 ways JTo = 16 ways [/ QUOTE ] 12 ways, since you counted JTs [ QUOTE ] JTs J9s = 8 ways T9s = 4 ways For a total of 478 ways. So that means... 478 / 1326 = ~36% of all hands? [/ QUOTE ] Now it should be 402/1326 = 30.3% |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: I think this is right.
Oh, okay thanks. So AKo = 12 ways and AKs = 4 ways and they both add up to 16 ways. I got it now [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: I think this is right.
1. not quite. i work for an actuarial consulting firm, will be an actuary next year
2. my statement about the EV is based on his assumptions - that he needs to hit one of his 11 outs to win. |
|
|