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#1
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Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
When he pushes, you are getting 3 to 1 from the pot, so your bottom set only has to be good 25% of the time here to break-even on your call. Could you be 75% sure that you're beat here?
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#2
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Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
sort of true, your bottom set has to be good 25% of the time by the river, so if he's got 75% chance of 88 and 25% chance of AK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] then it's a clear fold
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#3
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Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
[ QUOTE ]
sort of true, your bottom set has to be good 25% of the time by the river, so if he's got 75% chance of 88 and 25% chance of AK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] then it's a clear fold [/ QUOTE ] Are you really saying that you're folding a set (with 10 outs to a boat, including 2 of his flush cards*) to a AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw? You're ahead, his odds to make his flush are now 6 to 1*. His bets don't represent a semi-bluff at all IMO, his large flop raise could have been a semi-bluff, but after the call, he wouldn't fire again, therefore I would say that the percentage of time he's holdiing AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is negligible. |
#4
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Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
[ QUOTE ]
Are you really saying that you're folding a set (with 10 outs to a boat, including 2 of his flush cards*) to a AK draw? You're ahead, his odds to make his flush are now 6 to 1*. [/ QUOTE ] no he's saying that our opponent's hand range doesn't have a diamond or a combo draw enough of the time to make calling profitable. he's saying that 75% of the time, hero has one out for quads and the other 25% of the time he'll be ahead but will need to dodge the villain's flush outs. this makes it a very -EV call over the long run versus this specific opponent. |
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