#1
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NL 27/ TD question
this situation came up durring a nl27 game, but the question is still useful for triple draw. it was allin before the draw. 1st player takes 3. and now i need to decide. draw 1 to an 8 or stay with an A. i decided to stay.
i know that a J is a favorite to a 1 card draw. but the question is what is the worst hand u can have that is a favorite to a 2 card draw? 3 cards draw? |
#2
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Re: NL 27/ TD question
[ QUOTE ]
this situation came up durring a nl27 game, but the question is still useful for triple draw. it was allin before the draw. 1st player takes 3. and now i need to decide. draw 1 to an 8 or stay with an A. i decided to stay. i know that a J is a favorite to a 1 card draw. but the question is what is the worst hand u can have that is a favorite to a 2 card draw? 3 cards draw? [/ QUOTE ] Here's what my tool says about drawing 3 to 72AAA: <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> 7 5 4 3 2 0.00394696 0.00394696 7 6 4 3 2 0.00394696 0.00789393 7 6 5 3 2 0.00394696 0.0118409 7 6 5 4 2 0.00394696 0.0157879 8 7 4 3 2 0.00394696 0.0197348 8 7 5 3 2 0.00394696 0.0236818 8 7 5 4 2 0.00394696 0.0276287 8 7 6 3 2 0.00394696 0.0315757 8 7 6 4 2 0.00394696 0.0355227 8 7 6 5 2 0.00394696 0.0394696 9 7 4 3 2 0.00394696 0.0434166 9 7 5 3 2 0.00394696 0.0473636 9 7 5 4 2 0.00394696 0.0513105 976xx 0.0118409 0.0631514 98xxx 0.0157879 0.0789393 T-high 0.0592044 0.138144 J-high 0.0828862 0.22103 Q-high 0.110515 0.331545 K-high 0.142091 0.473636 A-high 0.0444033 0.518039 pair of deuces 0.140611 0.658649 ... </pre><hr /> So, a rough A is probably a slight dog, but K-high is a 53% favorite. (Actually, in this case if you have an A your opponent cannot possibly get an A--- removing the fourth A puts him at a K or better 50.5% of the time.) Drawing two to 723AA: <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> 7 5 4 3 2 0.0148011 0.0148011 7 6 4 3 2 0.0148011 0.0296022 7 6 5 3 2 0.0148011 0.0444033 8 7 4 3 2 0.0148011 0.0592044 8 7 5 3 2 0.0148011 0.0740056 8 7 6 3 2 0.0148011 0.0888067 9 7 4 3 2 0.0148011 0.103608 9 7 5 3 2 0.0148011 0.118409 976xx 0.0148011 0.13321 98xxx 0.0148011 0.148011 T-high 0.0740056 0.222017 J-high 0.0888067 0.310823 Q-high 0.103608 0.414431 K-high 0.118409 0.53284 A-high 0.066605 0.599445 pair of deuces 0.105458 0.704903 ... </pre><hr /> Here you need Q-high. Similar results for drawing to 234AA. However, just because standing pat makes you a favorite does not mean it's the most +EV choice... |
#3
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Re: NL 27/ TD question
more numbers:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1131009 pokenum -mc 500000 -l27 3d 2h / ks kh kd - 8s 7h 5d 3c / ah 5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 500000 sampled outcomes cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 3d 2h 161576 32.32 338325 67.67 99 0.02 0.323 8s 3c 5d 7h 338325 67.67 161576 32.32 99 0.02 0.677 http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1131012 pokenum -l27 3d 2h / ks kh kd - 8s 7h 5d 3c ah 5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 68880 enumerated outcomes cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 3d 2h 29154 42.33 39726 57.67 0 0.00 0.423 8s 3c 5d Ah 7h 39726 57.67 29154 42.33 0 0.00 0.577 Mark: giving villain all aces has a HUGE impact on the results, twodimes is saying about a 10% swing. Anyways, you should be a favorite over a draw, but you really need to draw yourself |
#4
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Re: NL 27/ TD question
[ QUOTE ]
this situation came up durring a nl27 game, but the question is still useful for triple draw. it was allin before the draw. 1st player takes 3. and now i need to decide. draw 1 to an 8 or stay with an A. i decided to stay. i know that a J is a favorite to a 1 card draw. but the question is what is the worst hand u can have that is a favorite to a 2 card draw? 3 cards draw? [/ QUOTE ] i want to know what game you're in where someone gets all their money in pre-draw and then draws 3 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] |
#5
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Re: NL 27/ TD question
[ QUOTE ]
Mark: giving villain all aces has a HUGE impact on the results, twodimes is saying about a 10% swing. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I'm not surprised. Taking three of anything out of the deck is going to affect that rank. I should upgrade my tool to explore a variety of holdings (like 27 + three random high cards.) What is the highest card villian should keep here and draw two instead? J, T, or 9? Or none? |
#6
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Re: NL 27/ TD question
If hero is drawing to 8753, a 9. If hero is pat, he should keep any card up through a K, i think.
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#7
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Re: NL 27/ TD question
[ QUOTE ]
i want to know what game you're in where someone gets all their money in pre-draw and then draws 3 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] yeah, it was just 3 friends filling some time buy playing a quick freeze out. and mr 3draw is still a beginner. |
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