A Raise Anywhere?

QTip · #1 08-05-2005, 12:55 PM

Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

EP raises, LP cc, sb calls, I call

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

sb donk bets (he loves to donk bet into a PF raiser. I've seen him do it with middle pair, and strong draws, however, he follows up a small % of the time on the turn without some improvement) I know a raise is coming because EP is aggressive. Another thought I had was to raise this flop. I probably have at least 10 weighted outs against the donk better and there's a possibility I could get rid of big overcards in case they fall, and the EP raiser was raising with AJo and so forth so he's most likely to have overcards. However, he didn't play well postflop and probably wouldn't fold them anyway. Thoughts on this if he were tighter postflop?

I call, EP raises, LP folds, I call

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

So..I catch my straight, but sb donk bets again. He's improved somehow and the most obvious is the flush draw. I just call. I'm thinking I may be better off just getting EPs bet than raising here, knocking him out and risking an expensive 3 bet from a flush. Also, I don't think EP would fold a big heart, but should I charge him more to draw to it if he has it?

EP calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

sb bets. Here's where I was most inclinded to raise. EP is free rolling now with probably the 3rd best hand. Again, I was thinking I could get his overcall and not risk a 3 bet from possible flush. If he didn't have the flush, I'm sure I would only get 1 from him anyway. However, EP will now probably call 2 bb with a big A.

I call

What do you think?

callmedonnie · #2 08-05-2005, 01:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen him do it with middle pair, and strong draws, however, he follows up a small % of the time on the turn without some improvement)...I catch my straight, but sb donk bets again. He's improved somehow and the most obvious is the flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise turn. AJ may be willing to pay, and if has the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or other high card hearts you need to make him pay for it. Plus, you have a straight and sb seem to like donk betting w/ hands not necessarily as good as a flush.

Entity · #3 08-05-2005, 01:04 PM

Fold preflop. Not raising the turn because you fear a flush is just plain bad poker. If he's passive you raise and fold to a 3-bet. If he's not you raise and call down if 3-bet. But for christ's sake, raise.

I really do think preflop is very bad here too. You're facing an EP raise and you're getting 7:1 OOP with T9o.

Nick C · #4 08-05-2005, 01:04 PM

I don't know what's best, but I can imagine myself playing the hand the exact same way, for the reasons you gave.

jason_t · #5 08-05-2005, 01:08 PM

I can find a fold preflop and a raise on the turn.

QTip · #6 08-05-2005, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. Not raising the turn because you fear a flush is just plain bad poker. If he's passive you raise and fold to a 3-bet. If he's not you raise and call down if 3-bet. But for christ's sake, raise.

I really do think preflop is very bad here too. You're facing an EP raise and you're getting 7:1 OOP with T9o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the thoughts Entity.

I disagree with you on the PF play, and I know that some other very good players in this forum do as well. I posted a hand where a tag called my raise getting 7:1 and I thought that was bad.

The thought seemed to be that T9o was good here, but not something most likely dominated like QJo.

Anyway, I felt very weak when I didn't raise the turn and thought it was poor poker. However, given my specific read on this guy, I felt his flush was pretty probable. The other thing was that I didn't want to fold in this pot to a 3 bet, and I knew that would probably be the best play. I just wanted to show this down....and I still feel weak saying it.

shant · #7 08-05-2005, 01:11 PM

Since when did 2+2ers start fearing the 3rd flush card so much? Raise the turn.

Nick Royale · #8 08-05-2005, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
sb donk bets (he loves to donk bet into a PF raiser. I've seen him do it with middle pair, and strong draws, however, he follows up a small % of the time on the turn without some improvement) I know a raise is coming because EP is aggressive. Another thought I had was to raise this flop. I probably have at least 10 weighted outs against the donk better and there's a possibility I could get rid of big overcards in case they fall, and the EP raiser was raising with AJo and so forth so he's most likely to have overcards. However, he didn't play well postflop and probably wouldn't fold them anyway. Thoughts on this if he were tighter postflop?

[/ QUOTE ]
The even more important factor in whether or not to raise this flop is how likely SB is to fold a decent hand on the turn when you follow up. You'll hit a pair at the same time as EP hits a bigger pair less than 4% of the time. If he holds a J as an overcard he's in even worse shape. So by raising and folding overs in the hands of EP you're probably buying at most 3% of the pot (sometimes the outs you're protecting already is dead and you'll get 3-betted). In this pot that's equivalent with 0.3SB and you need to invest 1 extra SB to do it. You need to successfully bluff the turn to make a raise a profitable play.

SippinSoma · #9 08-05-2005, 01:17 PM

Given your read there's a also a good chance he has a strong pair, two pair, or set.

Entity · #10 08-05-2005, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. Not raising the turn because you fear a flush is just plain bad poker. If he's passive you raise and fold to a 3-bet. If he's not you raise and call down if 3-bet. But for christ's sake, raise.

I really do think preflop is very bad here too. You're facing an EP raise and you're getting 7:1 OOP with T9o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the thoughts Entity.

I disagree with you on the PF play, and I know that some other very good players in this forum do as well. I posted a hand where a tag called my raise getting 7:1 and I thought that was bad.

The thought seemed to be that T9o was good here, but not something most likely dominated like QJo.

Anyway, I felt very weak when I didn't raise the turn and thought it was poor poker. However, given my specific read on this guy, I felt his flush was pretty probable. The other thing was that I didn't want to fold in this pot to a 3 bet, and I knew that would probably be the best play. I just wanted to show this down....and I still feel weak saying it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to know which players you're talking about. Here are the specifics:

An unknown EP raise (or unstated). A coldcaller (donk), a second coldcaller (donk), 7:1.

Jason says mathematically you need 11:1 here. I'm comfortable at around 10:1. The big problem is that 4-handed you're not getting paid on a draw, and while your top pairs will hold up sometimes, you're in a reverse implied odds situation quite frequently.

There are situations in which I would call this. Unless you're holding back something on us, this is not one of them.

Also, if you are unable to raise the turn, for fear of a flush or whatever else, it is clear (to me) that you are incapable of playing this hand well enough to call preflop getting 7:1. No offense meant. Just my not-so-humble opinion.

Rob