#41
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Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)
you asked for the 'least bad' option. i never claimed that it was a good option. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
wha' happened? |
#42
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Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)
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#43
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Results and Thoughts
During the hand I pushed for the following reasons. There are lots of mdae hands im ahead of. Specifically, AQ/AA/KK/KQ are hands I can see a lot. I think that's probably not the best course of action. I let the made hands I'm beating off the hook while only getting called by hands that crush me, or combo hands I'm about even money with. Which, while not the end of the world isn't ideal either. I also thought at the time that with so many scare cards there was potential for me to get pushed off the best hand on the turn or river.
Thinking about it though, I don't think that's the case. If he has a made hand its hard for him to bet scare cards if I just call the flop raise because it looks like I'm on the draw. I think the best play is to call the flop, lead non dangerous turns, and check fold most scare cards. Oh, villain thought for a while and then turned over K10 of spades for the nuts. Slow rollers are the scum of the earth. |
#44
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Re: Results and Thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
Oh, villain thought for a while and then turned over K10 of spades for the nuts. Slow rollers are the scum of the earth. [/ QUOTE ] maybe he put you on k [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]t [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and was trying to not get freerolled for his 'tournament life'. |
#45
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Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)
OK, lets do some back of the envelope math to see where we are at: I am not advocating a push, lets just suppose it.
hero pushes and risks 1930 (villain's remaining chips) to win 620. Let's start by assuming that villain folds everything but 2pr++ so there are ~40 hands in which villain is 5:1 dog; => EV ~725. So villain needs to fold ~2:1 or ~80 hands to bring hero's total EV to ~1930 (~725 + 2 X 620). So the question is are there ~80 hands that villain will raise with ATF and fold to a push? Total - with at least one club KQ-12 ways 3 ways AA - 6 ways 3 ways KK - 6 ways 3 ways KJ - 8 ways 2 ways K9 - 8 ways 6 ways AT - 16 ways 6 ways AK - 16 ways 6 ways TJ - 8 ways 2 ways T9 - 8 ways 2 ways T7 - 16 ways 6 ways QT - 12 ways 4 ways T6* - 16 ways 6 ways (may not open worse than this in EP) two clubs ~50 ways (double counting some of the hands listed). so villain needs to raise to T350 with at least any two clubs, and a pair with one club to make 80 hands. Overall it looks pretty unclear and is not a huge EV+ for hero even if villain will raise with a hand like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q. The situation will be affected by villain's willingness to raise some of the more marginal hands. I don't see why hero would want to commit his chips here when he is either way behind with no FE or a little ahead with a lot of FE (assuming villain throws down the marginal hands to a push) In general the hands against which you are ahead have a greater chance of improving than you do, so hero's situation is not likely to improve at the turn: I don't think hero wants to see any more cards. |
#46
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Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)
OK, lets do some back of the envelope math... boy, that's a large envelope hero pushes and risks 1930 (villain's remaining chips) to win 620. Let's start by assuming that villain folds everything but 2pr++ so there are ~40 hands in which villain is 5:1 dog; => EV ~725. So villain needs to fold ~2:1 or ~80 hands to bring hero's total EV to ~1930 (~725 + 2 X 620). So the question is are there ~80 hands that villain will raise with ATF and fold to a push? Total - with at least one club KQ-12 ways 3 ways AA - 6 ways 3 ways KK - 6 ways 3 ways KJ - 8 ways 2 ways K9 - 8 ways 6 ways AT - 16 ways 6 ways AK - 16 ways 6 ways TJ - 8 ways 2 ways T9 - 8 ways 2 ways T7 - 16 ways 6 ways QT - 12 ways 4 ways T6* - 16 ways 6 ways (may not open worse than this in EP) two clubs ~50 ways (double counting some of the hands listed). so villain needs to raise to T350 with at least any two clubs, and a pair with one club to make 80 hands. |
#47
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Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)
lot of estimates: the point is it can mostly be done in your head.
hero pushes 1930 to win 620 ~3:1 ~30 str8s (kt, t8) ~10 2pr++ (qq,jj,99,qj,q9) hero is 5:1 dog (4 outs X 2 tries) hero has 15% in the center (~T4200) for 725 needs 1200 to make him whole which means picks up 620 twice for every call. 2:1 => 80 hands ~50 flush draws (10club X 10 clubs /2 ) ~80 pairs with 1/3 of them having a club. ~30 Much smaller envelope needed. |
#48
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Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)
I like to check these flops, but I know I'm in the minority here. You aren't going to win a big pot with your J9o here most of the time, and you often aren't going to clarify anything by leading out. |
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