TPTK, controlling the pot size question

[Padster]

OK I'm uncomfortable disagreeing with swolfe but here goes...


Your flop raise is spot on and I totally agree with your flop reads (also AKd is a poss which has K as a danger card).

To me the villain check on the turn is standard. He's always going to do that. He either wants the c/r or the free card. He certainly doesn't want to call a bet.

So then you're really into what do you think he's more likely to have? the 9 was a good card as it makes 99 unlikely. You have a Q so for a set he is most likely to have have 33. he could also have KK. So only 2 hands that you're really worried about vs a fair few of hands he could have (ie flush draw).

You can be pretty comfortable you're ahead and that he's drawing.

Therefore you have to bet out. The check is dangerous and weak in my view. when the hand is shown down at the end the other players will see your turn play and be able to block bet their draws in future against you.

If villain raises your turn bet you have to fold. And villain probably doesn't call if drawing. If he does call then the river is checked down (or call his value bet depending on size).

Given the way you actually played the turn I think your river bet is fine.