Raising AK in big blind vs 3 limpers

[dark_horse]

you guys are bananas.

[elindauer]

If you want to continue to believe the existing doctrine of how to play poker, please, take the blue pill and get out of my thread. I am offering you the red pill, which you can use to see for yourself just how deep the rabbit hole goes.

-Eric

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

If you want to continue to believe the existing doctrine of how to play poker, please, take the blue pill and get out of my thread. I am offering you the red pill, which you can use to see for yourself just how deep the rabbit hole goes.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice reference. I've been following this discussion closely and I am quite interested in it and might start participating now that I'm done with work on my thesis for a few days. Please keep it up and thank you.

[SeaEagle]

EV = 4.95 SB = 90% of 5.5
EV: 5.95 SB = 70% of 8.5
EV = .55 SB = 10% of 5.5
EV: .825 SB = 15% of 5.5

The last one should be 1.275

Additionally, depending on when you're measuring the EV, I believe the pots need to be 4.5 & 8.5 or 5.5 & 9.5. And if you're measuring them at 5.5 & 9.5 that assumes that BB has already bet postflop which doesn't make sense to me since he won't always bet when he misses.

raise to build the pot up if u hit, in small stakes the limpers will all call, all that other mumbo jumbo is silly

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
EV (check) = 1/3 (.55) + 2/3 (4.95) - .5 ~= 3 SB
EV (raise) = 1/3 (.825) + 2/3 (5.95) - 1 ~= 3.25 SB

[/ QUOTE ]
Oh. And I think your hit %'s are reversed. i.e., shouldn't the first equation be:
EV (check) = 2/3 (.55) + 1/3 (4.95)
since you miss 2/3 of the time?

[elindauer]

Argh... I just lost a huge post. I'll try to sum up:

SeaEagle gives some estimates for AK's pot equity in various flops. Jake the Snake points out that I messed up the odds of improvement. I calculated the following new numbers:

AK unimproved, check pf:

I guess that weaker aces capture .15 SB of the pot with their 30% chance at having nailed their 2nd pair

flush draws capture 3.5 SB (surprise) because they do so well with the implied odds from the AK.

There isn't not often a flush draw out though, I estimate AK captures about 3.7 SB of the 4.5 SB pot.

AK unimproved, raise pf:

weaker aces are more profitable, capturing 8% of the pot instead of 3%, despite winning at exactly the same rate. Flush draws are somewhat less profitable as a percentage of the pot, because their implied odds are smaller relative to the pot. All told, I figured AK captures 6 SB of the 8.5 SB pot. That's 71% of the big pot, compared to 83% of the small pot. A tighter range than before, as suggested by chief.

AK improved, check pf:

AK folds often, so his 24% equity is cut down a lot. I estimated 9%

AK improved, raise pf:

AK is not forced to fold as often, capturing maybe 12% of the pot.


Adding it together:

EV (check): (1/3 * .09 + 2/3 * .83) * 4.5 - 1 = 1.75 SB
EV (raise): (1/3 * .12 + 2/3 * .71) * 8.5 - 2 = 2.33 SB


Still favoring raising, but still within the margin of error. I find that estimating the EV of the draws against us when we hit will still have a significant impact on the numbers. Next round of refinement anyone?


Good luck.
Eric

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
EV (check): (1/3 * .09 + 2/3 * .83) * 4.5 - 1 = 1.75 SB
EV (raise): (1/3 * .12 + 2/3 * .71) * 8.5 - 2 = 2.33 SB

[/ QUOTE ]
Your number and my numbers are coming out remarkably close - about .6sbs for the raise.

I recognize that this is within your margin of error, but I also think it's a pretty decent estimate. The immediate value of his PF raise based on the equity edge I posted above would be about .25 and he has decent implied odds so picking up another .35 somewhere is certainly reasonable.

If you're looking for a number that's bigger than your current margin of error, I don't think you're going to find it. .6 EV on a bet of 1 is a darn good return given how close most poker decisions are.

The alternative would to be to bring your margin of error down and I'm not sure how you do that either. Quite frankly, it looks to me like you're taking wild shots in the dark with your draw estimates and they could be anywhere from "dead on" to "miles off".

[elindauer]

I actually think these estimates are better than "wild shots" at the draws, and I had a lot more to say about these guesses in my first attempt at posting. Oh well.

I think you're right that the trend suggests that raising is always going to come out on top in this example. The .6 SB is quite a lot to overcome given the thought we've put into the calculations so far. I still think it would be interesting to refine these numbers a bit as it would provide a guideline for performing a similar analysis on other hands, like KQ or 77. Are these raises in this situation?

Good luck.
Eric

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
I recognize that this is within your margin of error, but I also think it's a pretty decent estimate. The immediate value of his PF raise based on the equity edge I posted above would be about .25 and he has decent implied odds so picking up another .35 somewhere is certainly reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry I can't understand this. Are you saying that raising has a postflop advantage of .35? That's what it looks like to me but that doesn't make any sense since checking should have the advantage postflop. Also, where does your 1.4 sb number come from? I need this explained a little more, I'm sure you're right I just don't follow.