Why does no one fold to turn raises?

[Padawan Learner]

xininja:

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If you were UTG, with virtually anything worthy of betting at that flop... why would a jack scare you on the turn? Looks like a fairly obvious semi-bluff to the straight or flush to me.

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It would really depend on my opponent, but I would probably fold more than most posters (not saying I am right or wrong). It is my guess, that against that range of hands (which is probably not that accurate due to sample size), my opponent would not have to fold a better hand all that often at all to make this raise profitable.

Also, perhaps this raise is more transparent than I thought, so I may be wrong here. But I do believe my raise here has some credibility.

[crunchy1]

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I don't think this situation looks very appealing at all. What range did you put UTG on when he lead into you on the flop?

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AT,KT,QT,JT,T9,A6,99,88,77,66,TT, possible a two...maybe just a bluff at a low ragged flop. It is hard to put too tight a range on this guy after 20 hands.
Care to eloborate further...

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Yes... so why would you want to raise the turn against this range?

[brettbrettr]

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Why does no one fold to turn raises?

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Because people raise the turn with King high.

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nh.

[Padawan Learner]

Crunch1:

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Yes... so why would you want to raise the turn against this range?

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Semi-bluff. A detailed explanation is available in TOP.

[brettbrettr]

You need to reevaluate why you think your opponent will fold. If that's his range and he's not folding this turn then semi-bluffing is not the right move.

[Padawan Learner]

Brett:

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You need to reevaluate why you think your opponent will fold. If that's his range and he's not folding this turn then semi-bluffing is not the right move.

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Perhaps my post title is misleading. Raising this turn without any expectation of him folding is the height of stupidity. In my title, I was merely lamenting the fact that, on the very rare occassion I attempt a semi-bluff, my success rate is seems awful. Since perhaps i don't pick very good spots, I posted this one.

Hope that clarifies things a bit, Brett.

[crunchy1]

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Yes... so why would you want to raise the turn against this range?

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Semi-bluff. A detailed explanation is available in TOP.

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<semi-sarcasm>And apparantly you need to re-read it! </semi-sarcasm>

A semi-bluff needs to have potential to fold your opponent as well as an opportunity for you to improve your hand on the remaining streets. Given the hand range you put your villian on - I think you can see which part of this equation you're missing.

[W. Deranged]

Padawan,

Think about the mathematics of semi-bluffing here:

With 8 outs to the nuts here and possible clean overcards, let's estimate your total number of outs at 10-12. So your chance of improving here will be between 22-26%. We'll use 24% for estimation.

Let's say your opponent will fold to the turn raise with frequency "f."

Then for the semi-bluff to be profitable you need to satisfy the following inequality (let p = pot size before your semi-bluff raise; namely, including the bet and your call on the turn but not the raise). We exclude the effect of implied odds and the possibility for villain to re-raise the turn. We also do not yet consider possibility hero hits a K or Q and loses.

f*p + (1-f)(.24p - .76) > .24p
.76f*p > .76(1-f)
f(p+1) > 1

In other words, your fold equity (f(p+1)) has to be greater than the cost of the bet. Given the pot size, opponent will be needing to fold here like 14-15% of the time for your play to be profitable.

So the question is not really one of "never." It should be one of "how often." Don't worry if your semi-bluffs seem to often not work... they're not supposed to. If you actually get the sense that they are "never" working (like < 10% of the time) then you should cut down on them.

[Padawan Learner]

Deranged:

[ QUOTE ]
Think about the mathematics of semi-bluffing here:

With 8 outs to the nuts here and possible clean overcards, let's estimate your total number of outs at 10-12. So your chance of improving here will be between 22-26%. We'll use 24% for estimation.

Let's say your opponent will fold to the turn raise with frequency "f."

Then for the semi-bluff to be profitable you need to satisfy the following inequality (let p = pot size before your semi-bluff raise; namely, including the bet and your call on the turn but not the raise). We exclude the effect of implied odds and the possibility for villain to re-raise the turn. We also do not yet consider possibility hero hits a K or Q and loses.

f*p + (1-f)(.24p - .76) > .24p
.76f*p > .76(1-f)
f(p+1) > 1

In other words, your fold equity (f(p+1)) has to be greater than the cost of the bet. Given the pot size, opponent will be needing to fold here like 14-15% of the time for your play to be profitable.

So the question is not really one of "never." It should be one of "how often." Don't worry if your semi-bluffs seem to often not work... they're not supposed to. If you actually get the sense that they are "never" working (like < 10% of the time) then you should cut down on them.

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Excellent post...very helpful.

So, given my situation, you don't think he folds 15% of the time?

[W. Deranged]

The most important features in determining this "fold frequency" number are reads and board texture. Note the board here is pretty uncoordinated, and your opponent will not often fold a pair here. The J is not the most threatening turn card here, either, though it is nice that it's an overcard to the 10. Many opponents don't ever like folding flopped top pair.