Snapping off a Bluff (5-10 deep stack example)

[aggie]

Villian (5k) is a extremely LAGGISH with bad fundamentals but good instincts and player reading abilities. I have him covered.

4 Limpers to me in the cuttoff and i raise with AsKh. Villian (SB) and 2 of the original limpers call. Villian is getting frustrated with me as i have been making many big preflop raises and punishing limpers. I'm almost certain he called with less than a premium hand

pot (~325)

Flop (2s-4h-5c)

Checked around

Turn 6d (2s-4h-5c)

Villian leads out for 100 and it's folded to me. I have a strong feeling he's bluffing and that i'm ahead. If i call, he's very likely to bluff again on the river (he's likely to bet 200-400 no matter what he has). If i raise, he's very capable of playing back at me if he thinks i'm restealing (which he has seen me do many times before).

What's my move?

[xorbie]

What's his range right now? Any pp? SC? It really depends on how well AK UI holds up, and how much I might make if a K or A falls on the river and he check/calls or I call (raising seems wrong here because he could have spiked two pair with a suited ace, and raising a K here might get him to 3-bet a river which you may or may not be comfortable calling).

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
What's his range right now? Any pp? SC?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think villian is unlikely to check a overpair to me on the flop. He may have flopped a set, but as i said, i have a pretty good read that he is weak when he bets on the turn (although i'm far from certain). This guy loves to bluff when nobody seems interested in a pot but usually doesn't bet enough when he is bluffing.

[THATWACOKID]

If you feel that you are ahead and he's capable of playing back I think you should call him down.

What's wrong wiht folding (besides for the fact that it's not fun)? I also think it's a nice change of pace for your image.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
hat's wrong wiht folding (besides for the fact that it's not fun)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting 4-1 and i'm pretty sure i'm ahead.

Granted, i may get outdrawn, i'm going to face another bet on the river, and I may be wrong (In which case i'm behind already)

[xorbie]

I dunno about calling though. I mean, what are you trying to represent? I feel like he pretty much has to put you on either AK or a some sort of draw, and is going to bet the river again 100% of the time, so really you have to decide right now if your hand is good (which you seem to think it is). The question is, what are you doing if the turn comes a Q or J and he bets again (or bets strong?)

[Big_Jim]

Since you feel that villian is capable/likely to put in a re-raise (that you have to fold to) if you raise him on the turn, I think that calling down is the way to go.

Unless you frequently slowplay hands, the turn raise looks very much like a re-steal, making it even more likely to make a play on you.

If you raise the turn, you'd need to raise it to $400 or so, to avoid suspicion, and if he calls or plays back, you're either outplayed or behind.

If you call the $100 now, and the 200-400 on the river, you're calling basically the same amount. Admittedly, you let yourself get outdrawn sometimes, but if he is really willing to bet any two cards on the river, then this line should be profitable.

Furthermore, since you have such a good read on his play, you may be able to fold the river, if you think he caught his card.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian leads out for 100 and it's folded to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the miniscule size of the bet relative to the pot indicative of his hand range at all?

[THATWACOKID]

A call looks weak which means he'll more than likely fire again on the river. If you've been raising a lot preflop then a set/straight is very possible. Calling here would pretty much mean you would have to call the river, unless he bets huge.

If you've been raising preflop I like a raise here. What would your plan be if he plays back?

[THATWACOKID]

Does this guy tilt at all? Would he start spewing if you called him down and won with your ace high?