allowing your opponent to martingale you - Page 2

Izverg04 · #1 07-24-2005, 04:17 AM

Pzhon is 100% right.

When you have an advantage, it is better to be on the receiving end of a martingale, given that EV is the same whether you are martingaling or the other player is. Your biggest long-term losses will be smaller when the other player is martingaling.

cardcounter0 · #2 07-24-2005, 11:54 AM

From Phzon:

[ QUOTE ]
, but casinos face no risk of a large loss against someone playing a martingale.

[/ QUOTE ]

From you, supposedly in 100% agreement:

[ QUOTE ]
Your biggest long-term losses will be smaller when the other player is martingaling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you spot any problems?

Komodo · #3 07-24-2005, 12:01 PM

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
From Phzon:

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
, but casinos face no risk of a large loss against someone playing a martingale.

[/ QUOTE ]

From you, supposedly in 100% agreement:

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
Your biggest long-term losses will be smaller when the other player is martingaling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you spot any problems?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, can you? English is not my native, but i think theyre essentially saying the same thing.

Wacken · #4 07-24-2005, 09:24 AM

This whole doubling strategy is BS. I hear it from more people who don't understand a thing about chances and gambling like to do it with blackjack so that they "can't lose"

Just look at each game independendly. If you wanna commit the stakes he asks and you think your chance of winning makes it +EV, play it.

cardcounter0 · #5 07-24-2005, 11:48 AM

Actually, looking at each game "independendly" is the problem. If you are going to allow someone to martingale on you, and he has enough bankroll to play against you for "X" games, then you are not betting on the +/- EV of winning a game, the bet is now what is the probability of winning "X" games consectively with the +/- EV on each game.

In other words, the odds of flipping heads or tails is 50/50. Allowing someone to martingale 4 times on a coin flip now means, I have to flip heads 4 times in a row to make money. A much different situation.

Komodo · #6 07-24-2005, 12:07 PM

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
Actually, looking at each game "independendly" is the problem. If you are going to allow someone to martingale on you, and he has enough bankroll to play against you for "X" games, then you are not betting on the +/- EV of winning a game, the bet is now what is the probability of winning "X" games consectively with the +/- EV on each game.

In other words, the odds of flipping heads or tails is 50/50. Allowing someone to martingale 4 times on a coin flip now means, I have to flip heads 4 times in a row to make money. A much different situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are rigth in that sense. It takes more time to make money against someone using Martingale. Overall though the risk is very small, since every loss will be minimal.

Wacken · #7 07-24-2005, 01:37 PM

It has an effect on that particular day's variance.

It has no effect weird effect on your EV. If you are equal players, your EV is 0, no matter if you double the stakes after every game or not.

As someone said it becomes more like a tournament, yes that is correct. You have a smaller chance of winning, but if you win, the profit will be proportionally larger.

So in the long run, it matters [censored]. If he thinks it gives him an advantage and that makes him happy, go along and double those stakes.

PairTheBoard · #8 07-24-2005, 08:15 PM

The most common way to get burned on a deal like this is when you don't play for cash on each turn. "ok, so I owe you $500 - double or nothin?" Get the cash on the table before each turn and collect it each time you win.

You should already know what max bets you can handle and still maintain your bankroll management for element of ruin. As you win money from the Martingaler your bankroll is increasing so your personal max bet limit will also increase. But only up to a point. When that point is reached you can no longer offer double up bets. You can continue to increase the max bet gradually as you win but doubling up puts you over your personal limit. It doesn't matter whether the Over-Max bet is against the Martingaler you've been beating or against a new player who's just as bad and just walked in the door. If it's over your limit it's over your limit.

PairTheBoard