Down to 3, 200/400 blinds, dumb play or genius?

[RiverTheNuts]

[ QUOTE ]
In what context would this call be considered genius? I mean I've done foolish stuff when I thought there was logix behind it, however I do not see any logical reason for calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is my reasoning... There is 3400 in the pot already, 1100 more to me, giving me more than 3:1

Assuming I am up against TT and AK (reasonable I think) ....I estimate my winning chances to be around 20%, I didnt actually run it, but I think this is semi close...

I am guaranteed at least 2nd place, and with it being a luck-shovefest heads up anyways, being up or down 1000 chips doesnt really matter to me.

If I call and win its over 20% of the time, and 80% of the time I am down to 3500 against 4500. Ill put my winning chances here at around 40%

If I fold itll be 4500 for me against 3500 for whoever wins... Here Ill estimate I win 60% of the time.

EV for folding = .4*30 + .6*50 = 42

EV for calling = .2*50 + .8*(.4*50 + .6*30)= 40.4

So estimating my winning chances at 20% puts me at slightly -EV... but bumping it up just 5% makes it a +EV play, not to mention the time and frustration factor that occurs when I lose and have to play another 10 minutes of heads up.

Running it through twodimes with AK and TT gives me close to 25%, so I maintain that it was a sensible play... not to mention that two medium aces could be cancelling each others outs, giving me more than 30% equity