A weak two pair

D'OH · #1 07-15-2005, 11:48 AM

UTG and CO are two unknowns.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, 3 folds, Hero calls, CO (poster) checks, Button raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, CO calls, Button folds, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero ?!?

btspider · #2 07-15-2005, 12:02 PM

looks like you have enough out to make a call.

name your outs and your opponents likely hands.

shakingspear · #3 07-15-2005, 12:09 PM

You're probably outkicked here, and I suppose there's a chance UTG has a 3. I don't think he would 3-bet a flush or straight draw. I think I'd call the turn and reevaluate.

Nick C · #4 07-15-2005, 12:14 PM

I'm not sure I'd raise the flop, actually. There's a good chance UTG is ahead of you, there are a lot of other players left to act, also, including the PFR, and the only hand I can think of that you're currently beating that has more than 2 outs against you and might fold for two more is a wheel gutshot with, say, 54.

I guess what I'm wondering is if the raise is really for value. I think I'd just call instead.

Anyway, it looks like you're behind on the turn, but you could have quite a few chopping outs versus UTG if he just has an ace and his kicker isn't that big. Unless CO is slowplaying or chasing very loosely, he seems to be on a draw, and if it's a flush draw, he is cutting into your chopping outs, somewhat, unfortunately.

Reads sure would help, but against two unknowns, I think I would call.

If CO raised behind me, what I'd probably do is give him credit for slowplayed trips and muck.

D'OH · #5 07-15-2005, 12:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
looks like you have enough out to make a call.

name your outs and your opponents likely hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I know I have a lot of hidden outs but it looks like I'm drawing to a third of that pot.

Boolean · #6 07-15-2005, 12:36 PM

Grunching...

Well, let's say it's equally likely that he has a 3 or an ace. Since there are both 2 aces and 2 threes that we know about, that means statisically it's equally likely he has either or. If he has a 3, we have 2 outs, the 2 remaining aces which give us a bigger full house. If he has an ace, you have 3 outs to your fives. There are also other cards that can come that will split the pot for you (a card higher than the villain's kicker). With his aggression, I'd assume that he's not worried about his kicker. This is read dependant, but without reads I'd assume he has at least AT, possibly AJ. So we're looking at 3 5s to scoop the pot, and *maybe* 12 outs to split.

So, you're looking at 2 outs in one occasion, or 3 outs in another win the pot. So on average, you have 2.5 outs to win. On another occasion, you're looking for maybe 12 outs to split the pot.

I'm really torn between calling and folding here. With CO sticking around, it might make it profitable to call one. I'd personally like to see more in the pot to justify calling with this one. It's very likely we're behind, and we're looking to in most occasions, split the pot with another ace. Also, by calling now on the turn, it most likely commits us to call on the river. So, I vote for fold.

-Boolean

Duffman · #7 07-15-2005, 12:45 PM

I would call the turn. I don't put him on AK AQ, probably not even AJ, but if he has A10, you still have some outs.

Only 3 fives to win.

But you have about 13 outs to tie - 3 Jacks, 3 Queens and 3 Kings( I didn't count the spades, in case C0 is playing a flush draw.), 2 three's, and 2 Aces.

You have so many outs for a 10.75-1 pot, and even if you split you will make some money.

AngelicPenguin · #8 07-15-2005, 12:48 PM

I'm not sure with only one limper I would limp A5s unless I knew the table was loose, but I've read plenty of oppinions that say the opposite.
Edit: I completely missed the split here. I think we have probably have at least 2 Ks and 2 Qs that gives us a split (the spades being dirty) and probably 2 5s to win. Getting 9 to 1, I'll call w/ 6 outs since CO is padding. If you knew CO was a calling station, then the call is much easier.
This should be called a "hidden out test" =)

Aaron W. · #9 07-15-2005, 01:42 PM

With the cutoff posting behind me, I might raise this preflop. Unknown UTG limper doesn't get much respect from me. Plus, I want the button.

The flop raise is fine, and I call on the turn. Getting 3-bet would make me sad. I'm not worried about cutoff unless he raises the turn or if a spade falls on the river. Raising won't knock him off his flush draw, and it may fold worse hands like medium pocket pairs... and it may open up getting 3-bet, which would make me sad (as I've mentioned before).

Catch the case ace or a K/Q on the river for a split with UTG.