#1
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pocket aces probability
what is the probability of NOT being dealt aces in 600 hands?
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#2
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Re: pocket aces probability
[ QUOTE ]
what is the probability of NOT being dealt aces in 600 hands? [/ QUOTE ] In Excel, =BINOMDIST(0,600,1/221,FALSE) gives a result of 0.065802786 |
#3
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Re: pocket aces probability
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what is the probability of NOT being dealt aces in 600 hands? [/ QUOTE ] In Excel, =BINOMDIST(0,600,1/221,FALSE) gives a result of 0.065802786 [/ QUOTE ] (220/221)^600 works too. |
#4
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Re: pocket aces probability
thanks both of you, but is it .06 percent or 6 percent (the running count is at 790 now btw)
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#5
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Re: pocket aces probability
i finally got them!!! 795 hands and it ended up making the nut flush
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#6
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Re: pocket aces probability
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] what is the probability of NOT being dealt aces in 600 hands? [/ QUOTE ] In Excel, =BINOMDIST(0,600,1/221,FALSE) gives a result of 0.065802786 [/ QUOTE ] (220/221)^600 works too. [/ QUOTE ] Hey now, that's a pretty good trick, I'm going to use that one. |
#7
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Re: pocket aces probability
[ QUOTE ]
i finally got them!!! 795 hands and it ended up making the nut flush [/ QUOTE ] (220/221)^600=.065803 is ~6.58%, or odds of 14.2:1 against (220/221)^794=.027299 is ~2.73% or odds of 35.6:1 against Spreadsheets are handy. The windows calculator works ok too. |
#8
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Re: pocket aces probability
ok so i got them again on hand 881, so does that mean the chances of that happening are (1-((220/221)^(881-795)=67.7%)=32.3%?
[edit] I got them again in hand 911, though they were called and sucked out on by some moron with 93s. Dont play at bugsys club[/edit] |
#9
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Re: pocket aces probability
[ QUOTE ]
ok so i got them again on hand 881, so does that mean the chances of that happening are (1-((220/221)^(881-795)=67.7%)=32.3%? [/ QUOTE ] I don't understand that expression. [ QUOTE ] [edit] I got them again in hand 911,.... [/ QUOTE ] So 3 times in 911 hands? If you want to understand this you may want to read up on the binomial probability distribution. The calculation is easy in Excel: =binomdist(3,1/221,911,true) gives .409492, i.e. a 40.9% probability of getting AA 3x or fewer in 911 hands =binomdist(3,1/221,911,false) gives .189411, i.e. an 18.9% probability of getting AA exactly 3x in 911 hands The most likely number of times you would get AA in 911 hands is 4, and that will happen 19.5% of the time. [ QUOTE ] ....though they were called and sucked out on by some moron with 93s. Dont play at bugsys club[/edit] [/ QUOTE ] You've got this wrong. Even if you never learn to calculate probabilities, you should understand this. |
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