500BB loss possible due to chance? PT stats included - Page 4

Psyonic · #31 06-24-2005, 07:43 PM

I'd like to add one amazing thing to this discussion: After 46 times of getting KQs... its actually losing $60! While KQo is winning like $250. Apparently God hates me when I have KQs

aK13 · #32 06-24-2005, 07:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to add one amazing thing to this discussion: After 46 times of getting KQs... its actually losing $60! While KQo is winning like $250. Apparently God hates me when I have KQs

[/ QUOTE ]

Post some of your big wins/losses with KQs.

I'm also going to take an educated guess and say you cold-call or 3bet with KQs often enough.

btspider · #33 06-24-2005, 07:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to add one amazing thing to this discussion: After 46 times of getting KQs... its actually losing $60! While KQo is winning like $250. Apparently God hates me when I have KQs

[/ QUOTE ]

it would be more amazing if you didn't have anything that stood out like this with such a small sample size.

Psyonic · #34 06-24-2005, 08:05 PM

Here are some KK hands:

Heres a bad loss:
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls, 4 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB

And another:

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, CO folds, Hero calls, SB raises, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

And heres my biggest win:

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 5 folds, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 17.75 BB

oreogod · #35 06-24-2005, 08:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
SSH is all you need for any of these games. I have HPFAP but have not read it yet. I've heard too many stories about people trying to apply the concepts therein to these games and just losing money with them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, only because they mis-apply the concepts against the wrong opponents. If u understand the concepts, u understand who to apply them against...most do not.

It is a great book. Ppl who advocate that u only need SSHe until a certain level are wrong. Often (and it may be only against 1-2 at your table) you will come across thinking opponents. I belive understanding both TOP, SSHE and HPFAP will only make u a better player.

Understand the concepts, understand when to apply them. You will make money this way.

SteveL91 · #36 06-24-2005, 08:26 PM

In hand one, you should have folded to the first PF raise. You're not going to see many 2/4 players raising light enough in EP that you can be the first cold-caller. After that, you're way too aggressive without a good reason to be. I'm guessing you get tunnel vision and don't stop to think about the other player's actions and what they might mean. UTG+1 caps PF.... and plays that way post-flop. You're likely against KK.

Hand 2 is fine pre-flop, but I think you should have raised the flop and gone from there.

I'm not sure about betting into the field on hand 3; three other players is my line in the sand where I'd be more inclined to check. The board is ragged enough that I don't particularly mind betting this flop. I don't think betting the turn is worthwhile.

Stuey · #37 06-24-2005, 09:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I only recently got PokerTracker (less than a month ago)

[/ QUOTE ]

When did the first downswing begin? On the graph you provided at 9K hands you hit a nasty downswing. I would guess most of it was bad cards but it is -150BB in 2K hands, there was some tilting going on as well I bet. I would have been steamed.

Did this event make you get PT or had you just bought it? Looking too close at things trying to find a reason could have made you change your playing style which along with a bad run of cards made this downswing worse.

Use PT to get reads on your opponents. Playing a certian way just to manipulate your PT stats can be costly. As everyone is saying the idea of raise or fold to avoid lowering your AF by calling to often can be very costly. If you are in a game with LAG's sometimes it is a must to just call them down.

Anyway good luck, I think your going to turn this around soon. I have had downswings of 270BB in the past. It's just bad cards mixed with a change of playing style (tilting). It is near impossible not to tilt though so just ride it out. If I can come out the other side you will also as I really suk at poker. And when it does turn it seems to happen fast and furious so enjoy. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: Try to think of it as 2 downswings of 100BB in the last 9K hands. That's what I see, the first 9K of hands look really good. And 100BB can be made up in 1 session if you run hot and 4 table. So you are only 2 days from getting it all back then you can forget this happened and wait for the next one. Like we all are waiting for IT to happen. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

KingOtter · #38 06-24-2005, 09:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SSH is all you need for any of these games. I have HPFAP but have not read it yet. I've heard too many stories about people trying to apply the concepts therein to these games and just losing money with them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, only because they mis-apply the concepts against the wrong opponents. If u understand the concepts, u understand who to apply them against...most do not.

It is a great book. Ppl who advocate that u only need SSHe until a certain level are wrong. Often (and it may be only against 1-2 at your table) you will come across thinking opponents. I belive understanding both TOP, SSHE and HPFAP will only make u a better player.

Understand the concepts, understand when to apply them. You will make money this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said.

PokerBob · #39 06-24-2005, 09:28 PM

You are WAY too aggressive. I know 2+2 preaches aggressionaggressionaggression, but your numbers are too high. You also don't go to showdown enough. Your WTSD should be closer to 35%, and your W$@SD should be around 52-55. IMO you are folding too many winners and overplaying your hands when you are beat. You need to steal more as well, but IMO that you can fix later. Tone down the aggression and go to SD more.