#1
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Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
flopped a set
6:1 to make boat/quad on turn (7 outs) 4:1 to make boat/quad on river (10 outs) if i went all in on flop, what are the odds to make a boat/quad by showdown? |
#2
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Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
=1-(prob of not making boat/quads)
= 1-(40/47)(36/46) = 33.4% |
#3
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Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
[ QUOTE ]
flopped a set 6:1 to make boat/quad on turn (7 outs) 4:1 to make boat/quad on river (10 outs) if i went all in on flop, what are the odds to make a boat/quad by showdown? [/ QUOTE ] If you have no information about what anyone else has, you will fill up 7/47 + (40/47)(10/46) = 33.4%. If you know your opponent has a flush, you will fill up 7/45 + (6/45)(9/44)+(32/45)(10/44) = 341/990 = 34.4%. The middle term comes from when the turn would pair your opponent, giving you only 9 outs on the river. It is slightly more likely that you fill up if you know your opponent is not blocking the board from pairing. http://twodimes.net/h/?z=988421 Board: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 649 65.56 341 34.44 0 0.00 0.656 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 341 34.44 649 65.56 0 0.00 0.344 If you know your opponent has a straight or a baby flush, you get the same probability to fill up, but you also have outs to tie. |
#4
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Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
33% = 3:1?
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#5
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Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
[ QUOTE ]
33% = 3:1? [/ QUOTE ] 33% = 2:1 You make it 1 out of 3 times and fail 2 out of 3 times. The odds are therefore 2:1 against. olavfo |
#6
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Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
New to board. I have seen various percentages above 33%. Ccould this be due to runner runner? My math shows that runner runner is 6.5%.
2nd question. what are the odds and percentage of the board paring at each stage? thoughts please. MW |
#7
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Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
[ QUOTE ]
I have seen various percentages above 33%. Ccould this be due to runner runner? [/ QUOTE ] Do you mean something like a flop of AKQ, turn 6, river 6? That is included in the calculations. It is why people say that you have 7 outs to fill up on the turn, and if you miss, you have 10 outs to fill up on the river. |
#8
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Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
I understand. two different internet sites have it listed as 37%. I will stick to the 33%. Thanks for info. MW
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