AK top 2, along for the ride

[Nick Royale]

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I'm new to the combinatronics stuff, so bear with me. There are 4 ways for him to have AK and 1 way each for AA and KK. Thus, he's 2:1 more likely to have AK than a set.

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Limp/raising AA/KK is far more common than limp/raising AK so I don't think estimating 2:1 between AK and AA/KK is correct. But I can't narrow UTG's range that much since the read is vague and his stats is poor. The rock doesn't seem like a mastermind to me either so I don't think we can fold the turn putting one of them on AA or KK and against KK we almost got the odds to call since we'll have great implied odds (on the other hand, if one of them holds KK the other is likely to hold one of our A-outs).

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I think that a calldown is reasonable.

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Agree.

[ethan]

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I don't think we can fold the turn putting one of them on AA or KK and against KK we almost got the odds to call since we'll have great implied odds (on the other hand, if one of them holds KK the other is likely to hold one of our A-outs).

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The problem with the "you have odds to call" argument is that I'm not closing the action on the turn, and the player left to act has capped the two previous streets. If UTG has KK I'm putting in 3 bets on the turn. If the button has KK (which I think is less likely) I'm putting in at least 2. That doesn't give me odds to chase against KK, particularly since I have only one out unless I'm facing KK and TT, and if that's the case I'll likely pay 4 bets to chase my 2-outer.

After the flop action I'm figuring I'm either getting half the pot or drawing close to dead.
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I think that a calldown is reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]Agree.

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If the turn goes (utg)bet, (I)call, (button)raise, (utg)3-bet and it's 2 more to me with the possibility of a 4-bet, you still advocate calling down?