#1
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QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
I'm not trying to post a bunch of bad beats, just trying to plug holes. Mammoth holes.
I think this one is so obvious I should let go, but I'd like some expert opinions. Thanks Absolute Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls. Flop: (6.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls. Turn: (4.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls. River: (6.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls. Final Pot: 8.25 BB |
#2
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Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
I would fold this on the turn
EDIT: effective odds bad. you'd expect a c/r from a heart but not always, so it's less likely he has one of those than he does a weak ace that wanted to see if the turn would 4 flush before he played his hand strongly you're getting 6-2 on a calldown and a flush draw if that's whats out there is going to river you some of the time anyway, regardless of the fact that you probably have 2 outs as it is |
#3
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Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
[ QUOTE ]
effective odds bad. [/ QUOTE ] Meaning I have no draw due to the lack of hearts? You got me on the effective odds. I'm trying to understand. EDIT: I found it. TOP. Effective odds meaning 2 more streets to make my hand, which may not be good? |
#4
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Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
I think I'm letting this go on the turn. Too many ways you can be beaten.
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#5
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Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
He's talking about how much it will cost to see a showdown.
You can't say, well, I'll be getting 5.25:1 on the turn and then 7.25:1 on the river. You will be putting in two bets to get to a showdown, so your real pot odds to see a shwodown are (4.25+2):2 = 6.25:2 = 3.125:1 Thus, you must win the showdown 1/4.125 = 24% of the time. Given that a single heart will draw out on you 19% of the time, plus the chances of him having an ace, you should probably fold the turn. |
#6
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Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
Thanks. There's a light at the end of the tunnel.
Pardon my ignorance, but it takes us blue collar guys a while to figure some of these things out. |
#7
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Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
Folding to one bet on the turn seems awfully weak (but might be correct). I would strongly consider raising the turn for a free showdown and folding if re-raised or bet into on the river.
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#8
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Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
[ QUOTE ]
Folding to one bet on the turn seems awfully weak (but might be correct). I would strongly consider raising the turn for a free showdown and folding if re-raised or bet into on the river. [/ QUOTE ] it's amazing how close smart and weak actually are sometimtes [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] what do you think MP is betting with on the turn with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] an Ace and now a possible straight that our Queens would either beat or improve to beat? kind of an odd place to simply bet a pair of 5s don't you think? |
#9
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Re: QQ Do I pay off or let it go? (no reads)
I agree. Villain could have a flush, an ace, or (maybe depending on his level of fishiness) A4 or even 4x, easy fold on the turn. Punish him later for outdrawing you.
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