Odds of 3 sets being flopped and quads being hit on the turn?

[etgryphon]

Well lets see.

To get the Number of at least 3 players having PP > PP > PP in 6 max is:

C(6,3)*(13(C(4,2))*12(C(4,2))*11(C(4,2)))/C(52,12) =
20 * ((13*6) * (12*6) * (11*6))/C(52,12) = .000035919862891074924 or 1:~27838

To get set > set > set on the Flop:
(6*4*2)/(46*45*44) = 5.270092226613965E-4 or 1:~1896

So to catch a quad from the set > set > set:
3/43 or 1:~13.3

So of this ever happening is:
(1:~27838) * (1:~1896) * (1:~13.3) = 1:703,744,640

And I know I've done something wrong.

-Gryph

[etgryphon]

Actually, I think I did get it wrong:

The odds that you will have PP > PP > PP preflop in 6max is:
(C(6,3)*(C(13,3)*C(4,2)^3)) / C(52,12)
(20 * (286 * 216)) / C(52,12) = 1:~167037

So the chance of this happening to the turn:
(1:~167037) * (1:~1896) * (1:~13.3) = 1:~4.2 Billion

I probably still did something wrong...

-Gryph

[etgryphon]

Darn it. I think I still made a mistake.

Its the first term thats the hardest.

I give up. At least for now.

-Gryph