#1
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A Value Bet Too Thin?
To bet or not to bet?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font> BB ($56) UTG ($81) <font color="#C00000">Hero ($137.85)</font> MP1 ($91.75) MP2 ($94.65) MP3 ($280.5) CO ($110.9) Button ($106.7) <font color="#C00000">SB ($299.7)</font> Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB (poster) calls $4.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>. Flop: ($11) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>, SB calls $10. Turn: ($41) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, SB calls $20. River: ($81) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero....</font> Based on his actions and stats (about 65% VPIP), I thought his most likely holdings were pair+straight draw hands that he had decided to call down with, or possibly A6. Who bets , and how much? The Doc |
#2
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Re: A Value Bet Too Thin?
Doc, do you think that this villian is capable of making a move based on the backdoor flush that got there? The more I feel that he would be able to, the more likely I am to check behind.
If he is just a calling station I think he might be able to call about a 1/2 pot size bet with his pair if he has something like A6, 67. Have you noticed any tendencies on the river when his draw doesn't make it with the pair + straight draws he has been playing? If I don't have a read I probably check behind as most players wouldn't call another bet on the river with just top pair (maybe a high PP though). |
#3
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Re: A Value Bet Too Thin?
I think checking behind is ok, as your stack is at about $97 on the turn and any bet you make will tie you to the hand.
If you feel he's on pair+straight draw, I think you need to make a stronger bet on the turn. At least 3/4th of the pot. With a 1/2 pot sized bet, he's getting about the right price if he's holding something like 67. KoW |
#4
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Re: A Value Bet Too Thin?
I personally would check here. If you're beat he will call you or worse he could be check raising.
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#5
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Re: A Value Bet Too Thin?
If you get river checkraised here, you might have to spend about 20 minutes cleaning up the vomit all over your computer and keyboard.
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#6
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Re: A Value Bet Too Thin?
Agreed I could bet $30-$35 on the turn and be confident I'm beat if he raises.
The Doc |
#7
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Re: A Value Bet Too Thin?
I had a fairly solid read he's the calling station type.
The Doc |
#8
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Re: A Value Bet Too Thin? Part 2
I think, decide he's most likely got one pair and will call a smallish bet on the river. Moreover, I feel that the turn and river are bricks and that if I was ahead on the turn, I should still be ahead here. Smells like a value bet.
Hero bets $30. Villain raises to $60. Hero? The Doc |
#9
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Re: A Value Bet Too Thin?
What hand do you put him on that if I was ahead on the turn I'm no longer ahead on the river?
The Doc |
#10
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Re: A Value Bet Too Thin? Part 2
Lets see, if my math is correct, you've got to put in $30 more to win $170 or so.
Grab a kleenex, listen to the violin music in the background, and click the call button. Call me a fish but for $30 I think you're ahead of something like pocket 7s, 67s, or a pure bluff often enough to make this crying call. Harrington mentions in his book that on any hand, the chance a player is bluffing is at least 10%. I think villian will have some sort of busted straight draw or lower pair at least another 10% of the time... so if you take those two assumptions, you're ahead 20% of the time making this call profitable. KoW |
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