Is this fold even that close? (just a math question)

[Two Finger]

Hello.
First off, thanks for helping my game everybody. Usually, I'm just reading but I played a hand I couldn't figure out. I need one of those math software programs.

2-5NL at the Mirage

Villain: super-tight willing to laydown big pairs (important) ($~1800)

Me: pretty aggressive but definitely in line ($~900)

Villiain opens a pot for $15 for the first time in a hour.
Me: KJo, decide to take a flop and get lucky.
both blinds call.

Flop: Q 10 7 rainbow. ($60)

Checked to villain opens for $30. I decide to get cute and min-raise my OESD. Folded to villain who says "I can't let you outdraw me, make it $200" (Ok, raising was retarded and I blame it on the all-star game on the screens, but on to the decision)

Ok, he's got aces, or got lucky and flopped a set of queens. $320 in the pot, $140 to call. I fold and he shows aces while scooping.


I've got ~$700 to work with if I call. If straight comes, I'm doubling up, if I turn a queen, i've got massive fold equity on the turn or by pushing the river. So, w/2 aces, 4 nines, 3 "fake" queens is calling w/11 outs even that close?

BTW, if I miss the turn, I fold.

Thanks for everything so far. . .

[radioheadfan]

When he says "I can't let you outdraw me" you didn't consider moving all in? He basically told you what he had, and if you pushed he'd be faced with a TOUGH decision. When holding AA there, QQ, TT, 77 and QT seem to look like a real possibility. I think an argument can be made for pushing the flop here.

[radioheadfan]

If you decide to call and try to steal it later you also have the J and the 6 as bluffing outs representing the lower OESD. Given those "outs" calling and taking it away from him when a Q, A, 9, J or 6 hit seems like a reasonable plan.

[PokerFink]

When he says "I can't let you outdraw me" you didn't consider moving all in? He basically told you what he had, and if you pushed he'd be faced with a TOUGH decision. When holding AA there, QQ, TT, 77 and QT seem to look like a real possibility. I think an argument can be made for pushing the flop here.

I know I would. If a tight opponent said something like that to me, my face would light up, I'd look at them, and say, "really?" and shove my stack down their throat.

I doubt he's calling.

[catamite]

Agreed. Given your opponent has just announced he's holding AA or KK, I wouldn't be able to get my chips into the pot fast enough.

[MrTop]

Against a super tight villian who has a large stack, I think you should have folded preflop and avoided this mess. Think of the hands that he could possibly have. One of the three AA, KK or AK are a strong possibility, so if a K hits on the flop you may just get in more trouble. I'd just fold pre flop and be done with it.

[betgo]

What are you doing calling an early position raise by a tight player with KJo?

What are you doing miniraising on the flop with a straight draw? What does the minraise accomplish? Either call and try to draw out or make a big raise to try to take the pot.

[OrangeCat]

It would help if you gave your and the villians position. I like what betgo said.

google pokerstove. It's a good program for determining your odds against specific hands. Poker Calculator is another.

[Two Finger]

Villain is UTG+1 and i'm directly on his left.

Anywho, pushing was the second thing that came to mind, but I took too long. Ended up folding cuz I didn't I could've sold it.

Thanks

- Two Finger