ed miller wiating until the turn raise

[Ice]

Ed

In your book you talk about waiting until the turn when the pot gets big to raise.I think this is a great idea,however there is a situation that comes up often and i wanted to get your input.

You have pocket KK utg raise and get 4 callers with a board of Q 7 4. There are 10sb in the pot so if you bet that is 11sb and every gutshot,5 outer have odds to call.So you shouldn't bet hope the bet comes from the back and pop it on the flop.If everyone checks you should bet out on the turn and hope it gets raised so you can reraise and knock some players out provided the turn card is not to bad.Is that an accurate description?

Now based on pot size EVERYTIME the pot has 10sb and you have tptk or an overpair you should be checking the flop because as soon as you put one more bet in the pot, 11sb the 4 and 5 outers have odds to draw so you should Always check the flop and hope the bet comes from your right to face the field with calling two cold or wait until the turn.Is that correct?

On page 287 in your example you have AA on the button raise and get 6 callers with 12sb in the pot everyone checks to you and you bet.Now you have 13sb in the pot and everyone has odds to draw so why are you betting there? Why don't you check and hope someone bets into you on the turn and hopefully face the callers with calling two cold? I know in this example it got checkraised on the turn but why didn't you check the flop due to the pot size? Input from Ed or anyone is much appreciated. Thanks Ice

[Alexthegreat]

If you don't bet, they get to see the turn card for free.....It doesn't matter what the odds are, you never want to give a free card if you currently have the best hand...Sometimes you can't do anything about the odds....You can't always make it incorrect for people to draw to their 4 or 5 outers....You should never be giving out a freecard on the flop in an attempt to make it incorrect to draw....

[kpux]

By checking the flop, you're giving the gutshots and two pair/trip draws infinite odds to hit their hands, since you're giving them a free turn. This is a lot worse than giving them 10:1 or whatever. Plus, you want to extract bets immediately from a Q or a smaller pocket pair that is willing to pay you off.

Also, a flop of Q74 isn't very draw heavy at all, meaning you don't really have to wait for the turn to raise. Just pump it up on the flop.

[zephed56]

Reread it.

Sometimes you aren't in a position to protect your hand, so you bet for value.

[CallMeIshmael]

Pg 171 of HPFAP seems to go against some of these replies which state that you should never give infinite odds with the best hand.

It states that in a large pot, with AA on the button, and a flop of J87 rainbow, the proper play is to check behind when checked to, with the intent of raising a turn bet, if the turn is not a 9 or T.

Lets be honest here, if this hand weren't in HPFAP, and the EXACT situation came up in a PP 2/4 game, and someone posted this hand, what do you think the forum reaction would be to the check behind?

Now, I admit that I would never feel comfortable checking behind with AA here, and would never check KK in the OP.

To the experienced players out there: is this play simply too advanced for small limit players?

[Dylan Wade]

Ice,

You make money in poker by your opponents acting unprofitably. What the guy with a QA on the Q74r flop doesn't know is you have KK.

Imagine this, turn everyone's cards face up. Now if any pair or draw can call your bet profitably then you should wait till the turn, but that's not the case in a 10sb pot.

Although QA is a great hand and QA hit his flop hard, he is still losing money calling (or raising) KK's bet in this scenario. Of course the QA is correct in practice raising here since theres a wide range of cards Mr KK could have, but if KK exposed his cards, QA would definitely be making a mistake raising.

Of course you could be up against 44 so you'd feel pretty stupid waiting for the turn only to get 3bet by 44. =)

In big pots things are different because in a big pot people are making less of a mistake calling, and some players are even correct to call. Since you're not sure if you're ahead or behind, and you're facing many opponents, you change your plan to maximizing your chance of winning the pot. the way you do that is punish weak draws that are drawing thin... pairs (on the board), like QA on the previous board, often have enough hidden outs to profitable draw in a large pot. (HOwever, I think betting straight out is correct again on the turn for this scenario)

[CallMeIshmael]

AQ is 8.4-1 to improve by the turn, and thus can call the bet profitably.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
AQ is 8.4-1 to improve by the turn, and thus can call the bet profitably.

[/ QUOTE ]

You profit more by him calling, however.

Assum it's HU, if he's gonna improve 1/9 times, you own 8/9ths of every bet that goes into that pot. On the other hand, he only gets 1/9 of each bet.

So even though he's calling profitably, it's much more profitable for you.

[Dylan Wade]

I don't know the it's more complicated answering "is it profitable for AQ to call?" I actually avoided taht question. I simply said it's unprofitable for him to raise. That is clear.

Actually, now that I think of it more, the AQ scenario is clear, because KK would be hard pressed to call vs a turn raise if either a Q or an A fell on the turn, as they are both scare cards... in a small pot, HU, he might fold to a raise on those turn cards...

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
You profit more by him calling, however.

[/ QUOTE ]

Incorrect.

You are losing money on his calls. By the FTOP, he is playing his hand correctly, and thus you are losing (in the HU situation).

The 8/9 of a SB that you gain when he calls is less than the 11/9 SB of the pot (11 sbs in the pot * 1/9 (his chance)) you LOSE by him calling. This is a common error in logic.