Do the "Odds with 2 Cards To Come" Have Any Usefulness?

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
But in general, if you want to use the two-cards-to-come odds, you have to use the two-cards-to-come price -- which will usually (in fixed-limit) be a small bet on the flop plus a big bet on the turn. You will never convert a fold into a call this way, though, since the bet size increases from the flop to the turn more than your chances of making your hand do

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That isn't necessarily true at all. If you are heads up and your opponent bets the flop and you estimate there is a 10% chance he will also bet the turn, you may not be getting good enough odds to pay one small bet to see one card, but may be getting good enough odds to pay 1.2 small bets (1 on the flop plus 10% of a big bet on the turn) to see two cards. Even though you would fold the flop if you only considered your immediate odds and chance of hitting on one card, you should call since your odds on two cards justify the (expected) price of seeing two cards. So you call and hope that either you help on the turn or he checks.

[maurile]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are heads up and your opponent bets the flop and you estimate there is a 10% chance he will also bet the turn, you may not be getting good enough odds to pay one small bet to see one card, but may be getting good enough odds to pay 1.2 small bets (1 on the flop plus 10% of a big bet on the turn) to see two cards.

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This is correct. The point is that you have to include the cost of both rounds of betting. If you really think your opponent has only a 10% chance of betting the turn, then the turn looks pretty cheap. I don't think that's going to be a reasonable assumption very often, but if your opponent is that weak-passive, then calling on the flop to get two cards may be correct even if calling on the flop to get one cards wouldn't have been.

[oneeyedjackz]

I totally agree.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
When deciding whether to call or raise, as others have mentioned, go ahead and use the two-cards-to-come number. (But don't compare it to the size of the whole pot; just compare it to the money going in on the current round.)

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Hi. Thanks for your responses.

I'd like to see if I understand this concept for limit Hold'em. Continuing with the example of a flush draw...

On the flop with a flush draw, the odds of making your hand on the next card are 3:1, but the odds of making it by the river are 2:1. So even if you got only 3 callers on a flop bet or raise, your EV improves because they made the bet while the odds were 2:1. An assumption to make this correct is that you will go to the river if you miss on the turn; but that is almost always the case with a flush draw.

On a turn bet or raise, 3 callers would not be enough to improve your EV like it was on the flop; because with only one card to come and your odds to make being equal to the number of callers (3:1), a bet or raise is only neutral on EV. It would also increase your varience without increasing your EV.

However and for the sake of completeness, I will opine that there are other reasons to bet or raise the turn even if you only expected 3 callers. Getting a fourth (or fifth etc.) opponent to fold increases your equity in the pot which is +EV. Betting or raising also helps you maintain control of the hand, promotes your image as a gambler, and might permit you to see the showdown for free if you miss, particularly if you are last to act.

How does that sound? Did I get it?

-TomBk

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]

On the flop with a flush draw, the odds of making your hand on the next card are 3:1, but the odds of making it by the river are 2:1. So even if you got only 3 callers on a flop bet or raise, your EV improves because they made the bet while the odds were 2:1. An assumption to make this correct is that you will go to the river if you miss on the turn; but that is almost always the case with a flush draw.

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This is exactly right. The other assumption it makes is that you will always win if you make your flush. But flushes win frequently enough (and you sometimes win without making the flush) that if there are four people with you on the flop and you have a flush draw, you are usually happy to see the betting get capped. Normally what is happening here is that you and the player who currently has the best hand are both making money at the expense of everyone else, so the two of you are happy to cap it together and trap everyone else. In addition to the equity reasons, jamming with draws in multiway pots is good because bad player who don't understand the play will think that you were "gambling" and playing badly when they see your hand and because it adds deception. If you only cap the flop with monsters like a set, everyone will always know where you are. Since you are willing to cap both with draws and with monsters, it is much harder for your opponents to play against you. Someone with a good pair or two pair won't know whether he currently has the best hand and would be making a big mistake by folding or whether he is drawing dead and making a big mistake by continuing.

[Benman]

You got the concepts right, but the odds of making a flush on the turn are 4 to 1, not 3 to 1.

[bernie]

"Effective"ly, they do.

b

[CORed]

The odds with two card to come are useful for deciding whether to value bet (or raise) a draw on the flop. If you are expecting more callers that the odds against hitting your draw (or actually, your odds of winning the hand), a bet or raise will make money. The two card adds are also useful in deciding whether to call all-in on the flop, since you won't be putting any more money into the pot on the turn.

[vanezza]

wouldn't it be usefull when raising will buy you a free card

[CORed]

Yes, but reallisticly, you have to assign a probability that a raise will buy a free card, because you usually can't be sure.