I play g00t.

[Joe Tall]

You do realize that the PFR raised 21% of the time on a sample of more than 200 hands, right?

What you have to realize is that such players are the toughest to play against, as maniacs get pocket KKs too. We don't need to pay a cap w/AJs out of position, it's a call.

If I could value my Ace fully, I had 15 outs on the turn, which is just barely more than 2:1 against. Therefore, if anyone calls cold behind me, it is a profitable raise

It's not profitable as you think as you are failing to calculate the % of time you are 3-bet on the turn by a made hand.

Go Pats!
Joe Tall

[cpk]

What you have to realize is that such players are the toughest to play against, as maniacs get pocket KKs too. We don't need to pay a cap w/AJs out of position, it's a call.

The chance I'm dominated by the maniac is calculated as AA (3), KK (6), QQ (6), JJ (3), AK (12), AQ (12) = 42 combinations. He raises on approximately 278 combinations of hands. This means I am dominated slightly more often than one time out of seven. Realize that this is approximately the frequency that someone will have AA vs. your KK--yet you would never suggest calling with KK in a million years.

As for your other point, playing the nuts or nut draws is no more difficult against maniacs than against rocks. In fact, in many ways it's easier, as they are the most predictable of any opponents.

It's not profitable as you think as you are failing to calculate the % of time you are 3-bet on the turn by a made hand.

This is not a "made hand" vs. draw position. I will most likely outdraw the aggressor 1 time in 3. I will have the nut straight or higher better than 1 time in 4.

The very worst that can happen is that I get 3-bet against 2 opponents and that my Ace is no good. In that case, my EV is 6 * 12/46 - 3 * 34/46 = 72 - 102 = -30/46 or slightly more than half a big bet. But that's the very worse case.

What is more likely is that I will get 3 callers anyway and my Ace is good. Even if I get 3-bet, I still win: 9 * 15/46 - 3 * 31/46 = 42/46. Almost a full bet in the black. If I cap it, this increases to 56/46.

Therefore, the way it turned out, it's +EV no matter how many bets go in the pot. In fact, I make yet more money on each bet. This is what you do not seem to realize. It makes me wonder how much you're leaving on the table in these situations.

What I will admit is that this play is not without risk. But getting up in the morning is not without risk.

[Joe Tall]

It makes me wonder how much you're leaving on the table in these situations.

Plays like this are leaving it in my pocket.

I will most likely outdraw the aggressor 1 time in 3.

Hmmmm, you lose 2-3 times but most likely outdraw, interesting.

Good luck with all of this,
Joe Tall

[Brian]

[ QUOTE ]
What you have to realize is that such players are the toughest to play against, as maniacs get pocket KKs too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, Joe. AJs is too strong of a hand against a LAG to not re-raise pre-Flop for value. While it is true that he will sometimes have a better hand, someone with a VPIP of 90 and a PFR of 20 is going to be raising a LOT of hands here that are MUCH worse than AJs. We're talking A9o, QTo, etc. You're simply giving up too much pre-Flop by not re-raising. Why are you worried about KK? That is not the way to play against a LAG in a large, multiway pot.

-Brian