AA - 0.5/1.0 Party... protect or get out?

[chris_a]

I thought about reraising the flop, but I didn't because of the coordinated nature of the board and I figured that I'd raise on the turn if a blank fell to get more players out (or just give them way worse odds).

[chris_a]

Also keep in mind that hte original better may have 2 pair or the straight and I might get caught in the middle of a raising war just to show down my Aces.

[IsaacW]

Preflop: Nice.

Flop: This is a very coordinated flop, and it's hard to know what to do here without better reads. SB "completed" for 3 bets preflop and then check/raises this flop... unless he is incredibly loose preflop (42 or a hand that connects for two pair on this flop for 3 bets preflop?!), I think this is a pretty good indication that he has a set. If you are ahead, I don't think a flop 3bet is the right move, because you have to dodge a good portion of the deck on the turn.

Turn: How many hands is LA-P raising preflop that have a 4 in them? This is a semi-bluff raise with a big pocket pair or (very unlikely) he raised preflop with 77 and hit his set on the turn. That said, I think you are certainly behind to one of these three hands, and are either drawing dead or drawing to a maximum of 6 outs (if you are behind to two pair and no one holds an 8). Getting 5:1 with a possible 3bet behind you (SB liked his hand a lot on the flop), this is a fold.

River: I'm still not believing that LA-P has the straight. Not sure what he has though [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Nice hand.

[chris_a]

Results:
LA-P had pocket 8's. The turn gave him an open end.
LP-P had 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].. like I said, I wasn't worried about him.

The calling down lines seems expensive over the board, but were correct here.

[Askilus]

You describe him as LA-P. It dosen't seem very passive to me to raise an open ended staight draw with one card to come. How big were your "sample size" on him before you labeled him as passive postflop?

[chris_a]

Not a huge number of hands... I don't have my database with me, but I think about 50. But he was in most of thoe 50 hands.

Him being LA-P wasn't the primary reason that I folded. The sequence bet - raise - cold call on this board was the primary reason.

[kiemo]

I believe either Ulysses or Ed once said

"If you never folded AA at micro limits, you wouldnt be making much of a mistake"

[easypete]

I have a few issues with some of the comments made in this thread. I'll address them all together here.

[ QUOTE ]
You should reraise the flop. That might change the action on later streets, or at least make it easier to interpret. You look like a guy with AK, not AA, and your opponents may be betting accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Man... this brought a tear to my eye... I'm a little dissapointed that I didn't bring this up... oh well... good job.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm know I'm considered weak tight around here

[/ QUOTE ]

I noticed this forum was starting to get a little weak/tight in general... that's why I'm back on patrol for a week or so to help with this.

[ QUOTE ]
, but he was getting 7.5:1 immediately on the turn call, with a possible 3bet from SB behind us, and he's likely going to have to call at least one more river bet. If SB calls the raise and the river is 4-way for one bet, we are looking at 19:3... are we really good 19% of the time here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not thinking about pot odds here, because I'm thinking that my hand is the best. There is nothing in this line of betting from anybody that scares me into thinking that I'm behind. I'm not calling down for pot odds... I'm calling down because I think there is a good chance that I'm ahead here. At 2/4 and 3/6, I might think I'm good here > 40% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
Let me add that the LA-P isn't just LA-P.. he's LAAAAAAA-P. That is, he raises a lot preflop with just about any decent holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

That still doesn't mean anything... If I have stats on him, that might make a difference. I think the threshhold for me to start believing that I'm beat from him on this board may be PFR of > 20%... then I start to worry about 2-pr or a straight. Even then, I'm calling down.

[ QUOTE ]
I thought about reraising the flop, but I didn't because of the coordinated nature of the board and I figured that I'd raise on the turn if a blank fell to get more players out (or just give them way worse odds).

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a bad thought here... but I think re-raising the flop is better in this case at 0.5/1... at 3/6, I would start using this thought process a little more. This is more better games, where sustainable winrates start to plummet.

[ QUOTE ]
Also keep in mind that hte original better may have 2 pair or the straight and I might get caught in the middle of a raising war just to show down my Aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

With that pf action, and this flop, you are afraid of 2-pr or a straight? Don't be... Yes, it may happen... Yes, you should pay them off if they have it. You will be ahead enough times to warrant not folding here.

[ QUOTE ]
you were drawing to 2 outs at best, and thats assuming neither of them had a 4. good fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch. You start thinking about drawing to X number of outs when you are drawing......... YOU HAVE A MADE HAND.... NOT A DRAWING HAND. And as far as hands go... this isn't that bad. Remember, you may have more outs. If someone does have 2-pr, you have about 6 outs for the board pairing. (hopefully pairing the right card... you won't know until the showdown).

[ QUOTE ]
Results:
LA-P had pocket 8's. The turn gave him an open end.
LP-P had 3 2 .. like I said, I wasn't worried about him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please, don't post results. It does nothing to aid in discussing the strategy.

[ QUOTE ]
I believe either Ulysses or Ed once said

"If you never folded AA at micro limits, you wouldnt be making much of a mistake"

[/ QUOTE ]

Word.

[chris_a]

I agree that reraising the flop was the probably the right decision with these opponents.

I also agree that the reason to call this is because of the chances that you are still ahead. The board pairing gives you outs against someone else having another two pair.

[ QUOTE ]

That still doesn't mean anything... If I have stats on him, that might make a difference. I think the threshhold for me to start believing that I'm beat from him on this board may be PFR of > 20%... then I start to worry about 2-pr or a straight. Even then, I'm calling down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how a threshold for PFR of 20% will start to make you think you are beat. FYI, he was raising first in with T9o, 34s, etc. I had almost no read on his hand here.

[ QUOTE ]
Please, don't post results. It does nothing to aid in discussing the strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Posting results doesn't help so much in discussing the strategy for this hand, but off the top of my head it does serve two useful purposes. One, if someone reads this and consider that, "hey I could be raised by such and such hand here, I should call these more often, or raise them more often. I never considered that I could have been up against that". Two, it can help people in reading future hands if they missed the read, that is it makes people think... "oh yeah, each betting action on each street does make sense when you think about him having this hand".

If you don't want to post results for your hands, don't post them. I will post them for mine.

[easypete]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how a threshold for PFR of 20% will start to make you think you are beat. FYI, he was raising first in with T9o, 34s, etc. I had almost no read on his hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok... let's say that this player is actually about a PFR of 5%.... then you have him beat.... Period. It's easy... what can he raise pf w/ that he beats you with? Nothing.

OK... now let's increase it to 10%. Now you may have to worry about a set, but he's a little to early to raise anything that will make a set from this board.

15% pfr.... now we start to see any PP being raise pf. You may be against a set (granted a low % chance).

20% pfr.... suited connectors, PPs, suited aces and such appear here.... time to get a little worried.

Now, in saying that, someone w/ pfr of 1% will raise KK, as someone with pfr of 75% will raise KK. These hands exist through the levels of pfr.

I'm just saying that if the LAP has a pfr of less than 20%, you really don't have to worry too much about being beat. You will be good more often than not.

[ QUOTE ]
Posting results doesn't help so much in discussing the strategy for this hand, but off the top of my head it does serve two useful purposes.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah... don't worry about it. I felt the same for a long time (I always felt like I had to post results)... Now, I like not knowing the results... I think it makes everyone a better player by not becoming results oriented.