Craps

eobmtns · #1 01-14-2005, 11:12 PM

Mr. Sklansky and others will disagree with me -- they call it a negative expectation game, which it is -- but I have played predominantly craps for 15 years and I don't regret a minute of it. I have had lots of fun. I have been very lucky this year, 3 times in the last month I have run $500 up to $10000 within the space of about an hour. You can gain a positive expectation by studying poker or blackjack, but IMHO the tens of $ per hour you will eke out is like watching grass grow. Craps is also a more social game, where players yell and cheer for one another. Play only the pass line and come with full odds, in Vegas with 3x-4x-5x odds the house edge is but 0.342%. In AC with 5X the house edge is 0.326%. Press your bets when you perceive the dice are hot, and reduce to a minimum when you perceive the dice are cold. For more, you could read "How to Win" by Mike Goodman.

dantheman_05 · #2 01-15-2005, 11:35 AM

si i shoudl bet the passline and then place behind the line bets to the max. should i also bet "come" after the come out roll?

eobmtns · #3 01-19-2005, 11:23 PM

You may make as many come bets as you like. Most players limit themselves to one or two come bets with full odds in addition (or instead of) a pass line bet with full odds. The more come bets, the more money you have at risk if a 7 rolls and all your bets are lost.

Iceman · #4 01-20-2005, 09:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
si i shoudl bet the passline and then place behind the line bets to the max. should i also bet "come" after the come out roll?

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds on come are exactly the same as pass, so yes. If you want say, $20 of action at any one time, then bet $5 on pass and then take maximum odds. (i.e. don't just keep betting $20 on pass - you reduce the house advantage a lot by using the odds bets to their full amount.) By only betting pass, come, and odds bets, you can reduce the house advantage to less than one half of one percent. Most of the other bets on the table have a huge house advantage, so avoid them.

slavic · #5 01-16-2005, 05:38 PM

Press your bets when you perceive the dice are hot, and reduce to a minimum when you perceive the dice are cold.

This is the type of belief that gets people in alot of trouble. The game is a negative expectation game, pure and simple, the dice have no memory.

eobmtns · #6 01-19-2005, 11:21 PM

The 0.3xx PC you are giving up playing full odds is, of course, the same regardless of the amount of your bet or whether or not you press your bet after a win. But money management does matter. Hot streaks in craps do occur, and any craps dealer will tell you that the #1 mistake of players is not pressing bets during a hot streak. This is why, at the end of a hot roll, some people wind up winning $100 and others win $10000.

Homer · #7 01-20-2005, 09:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The 0.3xx PC you are giving up playing full odds is, of course, the same regardless of the amount of your bet or whether or not you press your bet after a win. But money management does matter. Hot streaks in craps do occur, and any craps dealer will tell you that the #1 mistake of players is not pressing bets during a hot streak. This is why, at the end of a hot roll, some people wind up winning $100 and others win $10000.

[/ QUOTE ]

Slavic = right

You = wrong

QED

tylerdurden · #8 01-20-2005, 10:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The 0.3xx PC you are giving up playing full odds is, of course, the same regardless of the amount of your bet or whether or not you press your bet after a win. But money management does matter. Hot streaks in craps do occur, and any craps dealer will tell you that the #1 mistake of players is not pressing bets during a hot streak. This is why, at the end of a hot roll, some people wind up winning $100 and others win $10000.

[/ QUOTE ]

Slavic = right

You = wrong

QED

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I think he's right (but not the way he thinks he is). It IS a mistake to not increase your bets when the dice are hot. And people who do press their bets obviously do make more during a hot streak. However, you can't tell when you're in the middle of a hot streak and when you're at the very end of one. You can only tell once it's behind you. So the opposite mistake of pressing your bets when you think the dice are hot is likely to cost you as much (and more) in the long run as you make by correctly pressing.

So while what he wrote (which has an obvious short-term bias) is correct, he neglected to mention all the times that the dice are choppy and someone betting the exact same every roll will break even and the person pressing will get clobbered.

Homer · #9 01-20-2005, 10:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The 0.3xx PC you are giving up playing full odds is, of course, the same regardless of the amount of your bet or whether or not you press your bet after a win. But money management does matter. Hot streaks in craps do occur, and any craps dealer will tell you that the #1 mistake of players is not pressing bets during a hot streak. This is why, at the end of a hot roll, some people wind up winning $100 and others win $10000.

[/ QUOTE ]

Slavic = right

You = wrong

QED

[/ QUOTE ]

It IS a mistake to not increase your bets when the dice are hot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I read what followed this, but don't see what you mean here. As you said, it is not possible to know if the dice are going to be "hot" on the next roll. So how is it a mistake to not increase your bet? The more you bet on the pass/come line, the more you lose -- simple as that.

tylerdurden · #10 01-20-2005, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I read what followed this, but don't see what you mean here. As you said, it is not possible to know if the dice are going to be "hot" on the next roll. So how is it a mistake to not increase your bet? The more you bet on the pass/come line, the more you lose -- simple as that.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a mistake in the same way that you can make FToP "mistakes" - i.e. there's no way to know it's a mistake at the time you make it.

The difference, though (and this is what makes craps -EV no matter what while poker can be +EV for a skilled player), is that in craps, this "mistake" concerns dice that are about to be thrown, that have no memory, personality, or thought processes (and the odds of any given number are always the same, so the house edge is constant), while in poker, the "mistake" concerns cards that are already dealt (to your opponents), and there are other mittigating factors you can leverage to get an advantage (reads, pot odds, situational probability).