Transcendence Continues (or: I really think I'm getting it)

[LockLow34]

More and more I see how my game is transcending so that my actions are as much based on the type of opponent(s) I'm against as they are on the cards that are dealt. I don't yet make the correct decisions all the time, but my thinking when deciding what to do is based as much as anything on the percentage likelihood that a certain player is playing his hand a certain way, the range of hands he plays, how aggressive/passive he is, etc.

Take the following hand (my thought processes are in italics):

Table: 9-handed 3/6 hold'em, mostly loose passive except for 2 LAGgy's seated to my immediate left.

In middle position I limp in with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

No raise behind me, several to see the flop.

Flop comes K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked around to me

OK, either someone up front is slow-playing trips or doesn't have anything, so let me bet since I may have the best hand

LAG immediately raises.

hmmmm

Folded back around to me

OK, I know this guy would play bottom pair, trips, and a flush draw exactly the same way. Since I know where 2 kings and 2 nines are, and I've got him outkicked if he's got a nine, along with the chance he's flopped a flush draw, it's more likely that I have the best hand than not. So I'll call and check-call the turn.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check. He bets. I call.

River 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check. He bets.

I know this player well enough that he doesn't bluff at the river. If he bets the river he's got the goods or at least what he thinks are the goods. I'm well over 90% certain that he's got trips, so I'm not getting proper odds to call here, I'll save a bet and fold.

I fold.

He shows K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

My play in this hand (and others like it) was more based on the player, on his tendencies, on the probabilities of his holding certain cards, etc. This is new to me so I'm bound to make mistakes still, but I really really feel my game is changing in some fundamental way.

How cool is that? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[donger]

I like your though process throughout the hand, except I think folding on the river is flawed. It doesn't really make sense for him to stop firing at the pot on the river, no matter his hand. If he is LAG (and thinks you are tight [as evidenced by your fold here]), he will usually bet the river.

If you think you likely had the best hand on the flop, then it's hard to swing to 90% ceretainty you are beat, and this is a bad fold.

On a side note: if this guy _never_ bets without a hand when all the cards are out, then that's a big and exploitable flaw, and one I've never heard of (a LAG who never bluffs the river).