Scalping/Arbitrage, Middling, and Line Shopping (long)

[ML4L]

Hey all,

I've been an amateur (read: mediocre) handicapper for a while, but in the recent months, I've begun putting a lot of time into it. In doing so, I've begun to realize that there is a lot of money to be made by doing the things mentioned in the title of this post: scalping, middling, and line shopping. I'm ready to start, but I'm not sure of the most efficient way to structure my operations. So, I thought that I'd look for some ideas here. I've already looked at some old posts, but nothing was quite what I was looking for. All feedback is greatly appreciated...

1) Choice of Books

The first thing that I need to do is open some new sportsbook accounts. Currently, my only account is at Pinnacle. Which sites would people recommmend for my other accounts? I suppose that I'm looking for sites that are low-juice and slow to change their lines (so there are plenty of arbitrage opportunities). I'm also thinking that it might be helpful to have a site that lets you shift lines as Pinnacle does, but I might be mistaken (i.e. maybe there are more opportunities at sites with rigid lines; thoughts?). Also, I get the impression that an exchange is going to offer more soft lines than any book; is this the case?

One thing that is a must for me is security of funds. I've been to sportsbookreview.com (that's how I chose Pinnacle), so I've got the list narrowed down a little. But, amongst the reputable sites, I can't figure out which ones are the best... Is it going to be tough to get good opportunities using strictly A+/A rated sites?

Also, what is a reasonable number of books to shop among? 3? 5? 10? More is better, clearly, but there must be diminishing marginal returns at some point...

2) Arbitrage

Which sports are the easiest/hardest to arbitrage? Also, is it generally more profitable to take the small/immediate opportunities at no risk versus to put large bets on one side of a line that you think is going to move and then taking the other side later (even if you end up being wrong and having to lose the juice)? Also, if you do the latter and take both sides of a line at the same book, is this something that can get you labeled as a "pro" by the books? Do books share a common blacklist once you're given the label? If all of your arbitrage involves taking one line at one book and the other side at a different book, do the books catch on?

3) Middling

There are probably FAR more opportunities for +EV middles than there are opportunities for scalps/arbitrage. But, the problem is knowing a good thing when you see it. Clearly, what you need is a database that lets you create an accurate probability distribution. What would be the best way to create something like this? The idea that I had come up with was to pay a friend's little brother like $1,000 to compile all of the data that I need, but if there is some website or service where I could get it cheaper or for free (and probably have it be more accurate), I would certainly prefer that... To the posters who say things like, "Team X will win by 1 point 3.9% of the time," where do you get your data?

More questions might come to me, but this is everything off the top of my head. I realize that some of these questions might be painfully stupid, and I apologize for such a noobish post. I also realize that it might not be in peoples' best interests to share some of this stuff, but I doubt that I'm betting enough to really screw with anyone's opportunities... Feel free to PM me if you have anything to share privately. I might even be willing to offer NLHE lessons for anyone who takes me under his wing... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks in advance.

ML4L

PS I apologize in advance for when I bump this at least twice...

[ML4L]

n/m

[bugstud]

I did some nlcs scalps using only sportsbook and pinny.

I would suggest pming the notables of this forum as they probably will have better info to look at, plus sublime's recent must have books post is probably a good one to look at.

[playersare]

most scalping opportunities originate with Pinnacle, so you should max out their 10% to $500 bonus first. good "square" books rated A by SBR include VIP (+ skins), Bodog, WWTS, Jamaica and Bowmans. you can get a risk-free 10-20% return on your money with a $10K+ investment.

right now there isn't much arb activity except on the weekends for football (especially NCAA). it should be a little better when hoops season starts. peak season for scalping is definitely MLB.

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
I did some nlcs scalps using only sportsbook and pinny.

I would suggest pming the notables of this forum as they probably will have better info to look at, plus sublime's recent must have books post is probably a good one to look at.

[/ QUOTE ]

That thread was exactly the sort of thing that I was looking for; thanks for the help.

ML4L

[ML4L]

Hey all,

On a related note...

1) Who are the "must-read" posters on this forum?

2) If there are good existing threads that deal with my questions (like the thread that bigstud sent me to), feel free to post a link or the author/timeframe so that I can search...

Thanks again.

ML4L

[dankhank]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey all,

On a related note...

1) Who are the "must-read" posters on this forum?

2) If there are good existing threads that deal with my questions (like the thread that bigstud sent me to), feel free to post a link or the author/timeframe so that I can search...


[/ QUOTE ]

in general i think this forum's advice is a level or two up from beginner's advice. the posters don't tailor their message for newbies to understand. you'll notice "must read" posters disagreeing with one another on both a handicapping level and a system level. sometimes the system-level disagreements get resolved, but obviously the capping ones aren't settled even after the game is done.

also in general the forum focuses on plays rather than overall strategy.

other "must read" posts like slacker13's steam plays don't have any explanation tailored to them - i know at some point it was stated whether steaming lines have a winning or losing record over time (i think its winning based on how he presents the game....why paste the bad side), but in general you are expected to know. and that's just fine.

i found this forum (http://forums.lasvegasadvisor.com/ca...s.cfm?catid=36) to have a lot of useful beginning and midlevel betting information, however you must dig through stuff to get at it.

[sublime]

1) Choice of Books

Sticky?

[ML4L]

n/m

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
n/m

[/ QUOTE ]
dude what more do you need. get some books and get shopping.