#1
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River bluffraise...
SB is TAG after 400 hands (14/9/2.4)
MP3 is loose/passive (33/4/0.8) Party Poker (10 handed) Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, 4 callers, Hero checks. Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> <font color="red"> SB bets </font>, Hero call, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds. Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="red"> SB bets </font>, Hero call, MP3 folds. River: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="red">SB bets </font>, <font color="red"> Hero raises </font>... Thoughts? |
#2
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Re: River bluffraise...
I'm not for it or against it because I don't think the stats/reads you provided give enough information to determine if it's good or bad.
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#3
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Re: River bluffraise...
Sure, folded river stats would be good. This is all I got and I guess you'll have to estimate how a player with these kind of hands will play hands like QJ/QT/Qxs/99/88. This is also depending on whether or not he's got a read on me, which I don't know. There's many factors to take into consideration while playing and we don't often have them all exact calculated. I think the stats provided is enough for a discussion, but I might be wrong...
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#4
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Re: River bluffraise...
I wasn't trying to come off as harsh - but I guess my opinion is that I don't think that what you've provided is really enough for a good discussion of the river raise. What about WSD% or W$SD? How about VP$IP from the SB? Those would be helpful in analysis - and something that would've been available at the table.
The one stat that I'd look at that you provided is his AF which being > 2 seems to suggest that he's either betting/raising or folding a high percentage of the time. That's great - but, it's only a good thing if he's folding some winners which you can get a picture of by looking at the showdown stats. Otherwise your bet is just going to get called or raised by his better hand. |
#5
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Re: River bluffraise...
i guess you stopped the river action because he folded? i guess would a Q fold here? would a TAG continue to bet a 3/7/flush draw on every street?
my default line is: no.... |
#6
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Re: River bluffraise...
If you are gonna bluff it here, you should be bluffing on the turn. The ace is a great card and in the position you are in it is hard for the player behind you to call 2 cold on the turn.
I don't like this play on the river unless you have seen him fold the river a lot, but the way he has played it I don't see him folding here. What hand can he put you on here, in my opinion you haven't really shown very much strength at all, looks a little bit suspicious. The raise on the turn however would make sense as he could read you for a monster or a turned pair of aces which beats his pair of queens. |
#7
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Re: River bluffraise...
I rarely bluff raise the river, however, against a thinking tag i particularly like this spot. Villian is bet/folding this a lot, especially with the two over cards that came on the turn and river.
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#8
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Re: River bluffraise...
[ QUOTE ]
i guess you stopped the river action because he folded? [/ QUOTE ] He called holding KQ. [ QUOTE ] would a TAG continue to bet a 3/7/flush draw on every street? [/ QUOTE ] A tag wouldn't bet 3/7 at all, but maybe a flush draw. |
#9
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Re: River bluffraise...
You're in a pretty precarious situation on the river. He's TAG over 400 hands, which means that he's betting the river for one of two reasons: either because he has a strong enough hand that he believes it's a value bet, or because he has absolutely nothing (busted flush draw with no pair) and can only win if you fold. Since you are risking 2 BBs to win 7, he has to have bet a busted flush draw, no pair, on every street, about 30% of the time for you to win money with that raise. I think that's pretty unlikely, especially with the A on board.
He's not often going to bet a 1 pair Q, 7, or 3 hand (or even KsXs that caught 1 pair on the river) because he's far more often going to check/call the river, putting you on a busted flush draw after you flat call every street. Especially if he has a similar sample size on your play. |
#10
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Re: River bluffraise...
[ QUOTE ]
You're in a pretty precarious situation on the river. He's TAG over 400 hands, which means that he's betting the river for one of two reasons: either because he has a strong enough hand that he believes it's a value bet, or because he has absolutely nothing (busted flush draw with no pair) and can only win if you fold. Since you are risking 2 BBs to win 7, he has to have bet a busted flush draw, no pair, on every street, about 30% of the time for you to win money with that raise. I think that's pretty unlikely, especially with the A on board. [/ QUOTE ] I was thinking about folding a Q. [ QUOTE ] He's not often going to bet a 1 pair Q, 7, or 3 hand (or even KsXs that caught 1 pair on the river) because he's far more often going to check/call the river [/ QUOTE ] This is was I wonder about. I thoght he might bet/fold a Q, because I find myself doing it quite a lot here. That might be a leak in my game otoh. |
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