SSH Flop Quiz #16 -- AJs (crossposted)

[aK13]

You are in a loose and very aggressive game. You have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the big blind. Four players, including the SB limp. You raise. Two limpers call, and then the button (limp)-reraises. The small blind calls and you cap. Everyone calls (20 small bets). The flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], giving you a gutshot, and overcard, and a backdoor flush draw. The small blind checks, and you bet.

This bet is very unlikely to pick up the pot right now, And we're basically not folding out any hands that we would like to fold, so the only other reason to bet right now would be for value. How much value does our gutshot + BDFD have here against this field? Is it really enough to justify a bet here?

I don't think so. Especially as they say the game is aggressive. I personally want to a see the turn, and hopefully river as cheaply as possible.

[MrWookie47]

There are 6 players in the pot. You have 4 outs for the gutshot, 1.5 for the BDF, and 1.5 for your A. That's 7 outs, surprisingly enough. Since the pot is gigantic (I'm not sure I agree with the preflop cap), you're going to be seeing the river (almost) no matter what. A 7 out draw is 2.59 against hitting from flop to river, so you can pump this bad boy for value if you get 3 callers.

Man, I think I may have been misplaying situations like this, but I also have to be careful about not turning into a maniac. This is a weird hand.

Edit: You have to assume that Button is a donk who's limp reraising trash a good percentage of the time. If the LRR means AA-QQ, then you only have 5.5 outs, plus you're toast if the board pairs. You'd need to be assured of getting everyone to come along in order to bet for value.

[gharp]

This is a good point. I certainly don't think I'd be betting here.

You could argue that we have a pretty clean 5.5 out draw, which puts our pot equity at about 22%. With 5 players in the field, we have a tiny equity edge that we can push with a bet here. If you give your A outs any credit (and you probably shouldn't, but he did say it was an aggressive game...), it would push your equity edge a bit higher.

I think the preflop cap is a good given a couple of assumptions. 1) The game is very loose and people are limping in with anyting and everything 2) The LRR is from a donk that is much more likely to have J10s or small PP than hand that has you seriously dominated.

[jrz1972]

Very rough:

I have about 5.5 outs twice = 11 outs = ~3.3:1 dog. I have four opponents (if I'm reading the action correctly), so yeah I guess I have a sliver of value here.

(Betting this is certainly counter-intuitive, though. Good exercise).

I think the thing that maybe makes a bet good here is your position relative to the LRR guy. Assuming you still have a >%20 equity edge, if everyone calls you, then LRR raises, you have trapped everyone for 2 bets when you have an edge. Plus it disguises your hand. It would depend on how aggressive the game is though. If you be and it get's raised to your left a few people might get pushed out that you'd rather stay in.

[aargh57]

It's stuff like this that makes me realize how much more I need to learn. I know the basic theory of pot equity being the % of time you expect to win the pot X the $$$ in the pot. I think that if you expect to win the pot more than your fare share of the time then a bet is good, right? (You're assuming you don't get raised). So here the pot's got 20 SB's. All being equal, a bet would have to win more than 20% of the time to be correct. I can count about 6 outs (4 gutshot + 1.5 bdoor + .5 overcard). I give the A only .5 because it puts 3 to a straight on board (O.K. maybe I should give it 1). So I've got between 6 and 7 outs, call it 5.5. Now with 5 outs I need to lay about 8 to 1 to continue, so I know a call is right, but if it won't fold anybody I don't really think I should bet. I guess I'm saying check/call here but I really want to know the answer to this. Also, is there a bank of these hands or do I just search for em.

Edited to correct outs after I cheated and saw Wookies post.

[aargh57]

OK, this is a dumb question. How do you equate outs to pot equity? Sorry [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[GTSamIAm]

You're betting into loose passives expecting them to call, followed by the button raising. You have 5.5 outs to the nuts. Catching an ace counts as one out, maybe. Your equity on the flop is around 20-25%. So you're making a thin value bet. You're getting huge implied odds if you hit. You're building the pot as well so you can call with your gutshot on the turn.