Possible Cheating (Long-ish) Please Help

[THWAP!]

Hi,

I need some help. This is the situation, and I will try to describe it as neutrally as possible.

I typically play online, and sometimes in casinos. I play for middle-ish stakes. I also play in a weekly home game that has a $20 buyin. Recently, my roommate, whom I've been helping teach play online, has started playing in the game. I figured it would be a good way to help him learn the game. My roommate is smart, plays out of my accounts, and has done well at poker at low stakes.

This weekly game is with friends who are not poker players. They are there to have fun, and they are, in general, relatively poor players.

Recently, my roommate has been doing very well at the game. He has racked up wins of around $100 a night in a .10/.20 game. He plays very tight, but generally gets action on hands (it's a very loose game). He often shows down things like sets.

Two sessions ago, he had a good session. He had KK versus AA and sucked out. He had QQ versus AA and sucked out. I was not involved in any of the hands.

Last session, he won about $100. I was not present for this game. He had AK on an AK9 board and sucked out versus 99. He had 33 versus KK on a K93 board, and made quads on the turn. He was apparently dealing this hand. Another hand, he had AQ versus QQ and AJ on a AAQ board and the money went in the middle.

Tonight, I played in the game again. This is my last time playing in the game (I'm moving to a new town). So, we were joking, and I'm like "maybe i'll run as well as you run tonight." and he says "oh, don't worry. then i'll win it off you when i cold deck you. like maybe set over set or a freeroll."

In this game, he was dealing half the hands. I got dealt a nut straight, three sets, including a set over set, and also a few boats. I'm doing really well. People are making Very Expensive second best hands against me. He is playing very tight, as usual.

Then this hand comes up. a bunch of limpers, i limp in ep with Jc Tc. he limps, too. The flop is Qh 9h 8s. Someone bets, i raise, he reraises all in, and i call. He shows Jh Th and turns a heart. Ok.

Shortly thereafter, this hand comes up. It's folded to him, and he raises. This generally means a premium hand, though I know that he is capable of playing me differently, since I am one of the more experienced players in the game--i can make laydowns or calls that other people won't make. I don't say this to be arrogant, but simply to establish that our states of mind when we're playing each other are clearly different than when we are involved in hands against anyone else in the game. One caller, and I call on the button with KsTs. We're pretty deep. The flop is Qs Js 9c. I check, he bets the full pot, and I call. There is about 10 in the pot. Turn is an offsuit 2. I bet 10, he moves in for 50 more. Obviously I call. He turns over As2s. I offer to run it twice, and he immediately declines. the river is a spade. what's notable is that my rooommate is very risk averse, and i think it's both unlikely that he will play the hand like this--later on, he said that he thought i was capable of folding a set here, and he had outs--and i thought it was especially strange that he wouldn't agree to run it twice.

after this, I notice someting about my roommate's shuffling. he always has the cards under the table. he is not shuffling, but putting some of the discards towards the back half of the deck. additionally, he is often holding the deck at a sideways angle in his lap, and then "playing" with the deck, but in such a way that he can see the cards of the deck. occasionally, i've seen him start switching cards in the deck during a hand. also, this is the way he shuffles during every hand he is dealing. when we play at my own house heads up, he shuffles apparently normally. i have not said anything to him.

the events above are relayed in the order they happened. i then said stuff to other people in the game, and they observed it. they have claimed to see the same thing, though they are not experienced gamblers. my judgment is somewhat biased since i feel like i would be on the wrong end of this. at the same time, the fact that this many colddeckings have happened, and this strange pattern of events leaves me wondering. I know weird colddeckings happen, but this kid seems to be dancing in between raindrops at all the weirdest times, and then i see that the shuffle appears to be weird.

So a few questions,

(1) What is the probability that you think he is cheating?

(2) If you think he is cheating, what evidence do you think is the most compelling? Alternatively, if you do not think he is cheating, what omission from the fact pattern gives you reason to believe that no cheating is occurring?

(3) If you believe he is cheating, how should I resolve the situation? Bear in mind that I am leaving town, but that other people's money was at stake here too. Also say what you would plan to do in the case of an anticipated denial. bear in mind that since this person is my roommate, and i have financial dealings with him (things like playing off my accounts online, settling up rent payments and stuff), that i would have to tread somewhat carefully.

I know this was long, but I wanted to be precise about the fact pattern and the sequence, and I also wanted to be even handed. your help is much appreciated.