Misplayed on all streets?

[Rockatansky]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($38.55)</font>
SB ($20.75)
BB ($39.22)
UTG ($43.75)
<font color="#C00000">MP (Villain)/ ($31.91)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $0.5</font>, MP (Villain)/ calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.25.

Flop: ($2.10) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $2</font>, Villain calls $2, Hero calls $2, BB folds.

Turn: ($8.10) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Villain checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, UTG folds, Villain calls $5.

River: ($18.10) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, Hero ??

[-Skeme-]

Well, it'd be easier to figure out if you misplayed each street if you'd post your thought process behind each play. I don't play 6 Max, but I assume calling a minraise there is perfectly fine. Without a read on UTG I just call there behind Villain. Speaking of, why is MP labeled Villain and not UTG? Anywho, turn is a blank and it looks like they've given up on the hand.. I guess a stealing bet there is alright, but it'd help to know how loose your opponent's are. Sometimes I just check behind there.

Either bet or check behind. Decide whether or not they were drawing at something and go with your instinct. I also imagine that since this is 6 Max, the chances of someone calling down with a smaller piece of the board go up. Tricky. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Rockatansky]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, it'd be easier to figure out if you misplayed each street if you'd post your thought process behind each play. I don't play 6 Max, but I assume calling a minraise there is perfectly fine. Without a read on UTG I just call there behind Villain. Speaking of, why is MP labeled Villain and not UTG? Anywho, turn is a blank and it looks like they've given up on the hand.. I guess a stealing bet there is alright, but it'd help to know how loose your opponent's are. Sometimes I just check behind there.

Either bet or check behind. Decide whether or not they were drawing at something and go with your instinct. I also imagine that since this is 6 Max, the chances of someone calling down with a smaller piece of the board go up. Tricky. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry if I was was unclear: I didn't specifically put Villain on any particular hand, I was just trying to figure out my best course of action given his likely holdings. I didn't think that Villain held AA-QQ, as his preflop raise would likely have been larger. I think a pocket pair was likely given the minraise and Villain's pot-sized bet on the flop. I was a favorite over any one pair hand lower than mine (so long as they didn't hold A-x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]). I guess what I'm saying is that I was either slightly ahead or way behind.

And yes, I will shove it in here against a player that overplays top pair.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
And yes, I will shove it in here against a player that overplays top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean overplays top pair? Is willing to call an all in with it?

[Rockatansky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And yes, I will shove it in here against a player that overplays top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean overplays top pair? Is willing to call an all in with it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[-Skeme-]

Then I think one of us has the wrong idea about pushing with decent draws. As I understand it, the main idea behind pushing here is to get a fold from a hand that would otherwise call down smaller bets and beat you barring improvement. You're investing your stack into this hand hoping to get a fold, not hoping to get a call from a hand that at best is 50/50 with your draw. If your semi-bluff has absolutely no folding equity, what's the point in pushing?

Hand 1: 50.5122 %
Hand 2: 49.4878 %

Willingly taking this action for big pots is surely high variance. Unless you're just trying to harbor a maniacal image to get paid off later, I don't see the point. Keep in mind this is the minimum we're putting this guy on. He obviously calls with 2 pair, sets and overpairs.

Just my .02, :-/.

[Rockatansky]

MP = Villain. I guess the converter switched them around. On the flop, I figured I was probably ahead, but I didn't feel like shoving it all in against two opponents when I was already getting sufficient odds to draw at the flush. Plus, there seemd to be a decent chance that someone was slowplaying a set or drawing to a lower flush, and I'd get paid off on the turn if the flush came in.

On the turn, my thinking was exactly as you said - everyone else seemed to be on a draw also, so I figured I could blow them off of their hands, and I likely had 15 outs.

On the river, I obviously didn't know whether to bet or check behind.

[-Skeme-]

Your logic behind your action seems to be a bit confusing. First off, I don't really see how you think you're ahead on the flop after UTG follows up his preflop raise with a PSB AND receives a caller. Also, would you really shove it in here ever? Seems like a pretty massive overbet that would only keep in the hands that have you in bad shape. I think calling the flop is the best option.

Okay, now back to your confusing logic. First you state that it's likely you're ahead with just overs + flush draw, but then go on to say it's equally likely somebody is slowplaying a set? Not sure what to make of that. Someone posted something a few days ago that I think would apply in this hand.

I'm defintely butchering this quote, but whatever. It went something like, "When in doubt about where you stand, keep the pot small until you figure it out." Calling the flop seems goot.

Turn I think your bet is fine. River, I don't know. Heh.

[theben]

flop is fine, although your hand is good enough to raise
i dont mind the turn either, the flop bettor could be following up w/ AK or AQ

on the river, if you bet you probably are going to get called. so either scare him off with a substantial bet if you think he'll fold, or just give this pot up

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
However, this move is much more profitable against someone who actually will call while holding nothing more than top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

How? In the theoretical hand we're using, Villain calls your all in with as little as TPNK. When you get it all in against TPNK your odds are:

Hand 1: 50.5122 %
Hand 2: 49.4878 %

You're barely a 1% favorite. Assuming you could know 100% that he had only top pair, this would still be slightly +EV, but you can't know this. If he calls with as little as TPNK, he's also calling with two pair, overpairs and of course sets. When you factor these hands into his range, your odds are now:

Hand 1: 47.8578
Hand 2: 52.1422

With you being the dog. At the risk of sounding like a jackass if I'm wrong, this is indeed an -EV situation. Now that's just the situation where we know you have no folding equity as he has a minimum of TP.

I'm terrible in math so I can't figure this out, but it seems the only way this situation becomes +EV is by getting the right number of folds to your all in bets. I don't know how often this is or how to calculate it.

Edit: Alright, this is a hard topic to talk about for me. In an actual cash game there is ALWAYS fold equity. In my theoretical situation there wasn't, making this difficult to analyze.

Your pot odds, as well as fold equity, play an important role in determining whether or not this 52/48 situation becomes +EV. Your % of winning the hand needs to be compared to how much money you've invested into the pot with your all in bet only. You also need to factor in the pot size when called.

If there is $50 in the pot and you push on your flop for $100 and get called, the pot is now $250. This means you must have greater than a 40% of winning for this to become +EV. Since you have a 48% shot, this becomes a profitable situation. Even moreso when you understand that you will have some degree of folding equity as he can't ALWAYS have top pair.

The above example is for the situation when your all in is called by TP and above. Does this make sense?