#1
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Help with flushes
This is a common situation. You think your opponent is on a flush draw; sure enough the flush makes it on the river.
Is this an easy lay down? An easy call? Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls. Flop: (12.40 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds. Turn: (7.20 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls. River: (9.20 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero...? Thanks. Similar, but different. Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks. Flop: (7 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Button folds, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, BB calls. Turn: (9.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, BB calls, Hero calls. River: (21.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero...? |
#2
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Re: Help with flushes
Hand 2 you have to call. Hand 1 I'd be more tempted to muck. The number of hands that beat you if hand 1 is huge.
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#3
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Re: Help with flushes
I think both of these pots are big enough that you can't fold.
In hand 1, you only need to pick off a bluff ~10% of the time for this call to be correct (I think p(bluff) is greater than this) In hand 2, it's a bit tougher to find hands that you beat, but I still think I make a crying call with the 5% chance that BB is bluffing (unlikely), or thinks his KQ is good. However, if I knew that villian in hand 2 was a good player, I would have a harder time calling this. His play throughout the hand is EXACTLY what a good player would do with a flush draw. Still, think you've gotta call. |
#4
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Re: Help with flushes
I'll fold both. I don't see another hand for UTG+2 in hand 1. It's very likely he has a high spade and there's very little he could have that you beat (99?). In hand 2, you aren't even certain to be ahead of SB, and BB will almost always have a flush. It's a big pot, but it isn't weak to fold.
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#5
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Re: Help with flushes
Everyone seems to be ignoring that hand #1 is HU and hand #2 is 3-way with the SB (turn capper) left to act after Hero.
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#6
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Re: Help with flushes
Yeah, even if we have BB beat, I dunno about SB. Him waking up on the turn kind of looks like 65, though he could have a bigger set too. HU I'd call either of them, but I don't know that we're good vs. both of them often enough to make this a good call.
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#7
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Re: Help with flushes
In hand one its likely that UTG+2 donked some kinda flush or straight or twopair even. I don't think I'm good here one out of ten times.
In hand two I'd have to fold too. BB is calling these turn bets with probably a draw and SB may even have a higher set or better. If it was just me and BB i'd call, but SB is still there too. |
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