#1
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99 Mid position
$30+3 PP MTT Tourney
313 Players SB (780) BB (1530) UTG (1375) UTG+1 (3750) MP1 (5217) Hero (980) Villian (1135) CO (2435) Button (563) Hero has been playing tight aggressive Villian is all over the place. He had 3400 in chips and made a bad call with JJ and one over card. He had been up and down. Blinds 25/50 Folded to Hero with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Raises to 175 Villian moves all in Folded to Hero I called thinking it was a 55/45 coin flip. I was down to about 800 in chips after the raise. Villian had A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Flop 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I can't remember what came after that, but it wasn't two 9s. Should I have folded or taken the coin flip. |
#2
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Re: 99 Mid position
I would say u should ve folded w/o any information on this guy. Having seen he had at, calling was a good play.
dR |
#3
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Re: 99 Mid position
I had some info on him. I am new at MTTs and have mostly been playing SNGs. He was loose agressive and played a lot of hands. He doubled up on a bad beat against a solid player. I figured he would have me beat with a higher pair about 20% of the time. 50% of the time he would hold high cards AK-A10, or even KQ-K10 in a loose aggressive. The other 30% of the time he would push with 88-55 (even 22 with some of these guys) and I would be a favorite. Doing the math the coin flip seems more in my favor.
30% Win 4:1 favorite 50% Coin Flip 11:10 20% dog 1:4 underdog 815 to call all in 1235 in the pot pot odds: 3:2 50% of the time coin flip = .28 30% 4:1 favorite = .25 20% 1:4 underdog = .04 Win rate 56% pot odds 3:2 EV 56%(2055)-44%(815)= +796 I think the math is correct. If the Villian were tighter I think there would have been a better chance he had an overpair. He wouldn't have raised with 88 or less. He might have AK-AQs. I would have folded here. All the math and statistics aside. You are faced with a coin flip that pays 3 to 2. Do you take this step at this place in a tourney, or fold and wait for a safer opportunity. The blinds were only 25/50 with about 5 minutes left. I wouldn't last much longer than 2 more levels. So do you play tight and hope for a better starting hand and fold or call the bet and gamble. |
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