Turned a boat. What do you do?

[Garland]

The main villian has the following stats:

68 hands, VP$IP = 50.00, Preflop Raise % = 13.24, Aggression factor = .74 (passive side with aggression usually coming on turn and river).

What would you do in the following situation?

Garland

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed) converter

UTG+1 ($209.50)
UTG+2 ($66.50)
MP1 ($499.50)
MP2 ($279.50)
Garland ($196)
CO ($347.50)
Button ($114)
SB ($86.50)
BB ($111)
UTG ($167)

Preflop: Garland is MP3 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $10</font>, Garland calls $10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $10, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($33) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Garland checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($33) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Garland bets $22</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $100</font>, Garland ????

[soah]

You double up...?

You can't call raises with mid pairs if you intend to do anything other than shove all your money in the pot and dance in the street when you get a board like this.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't call raises with mid pairs if you intend to do anything other than shove all your money in the pot and dance in the street when you get a board like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you not find MP2's actions bizarre to say the least? What do you put him on?

Garland

[Burno]

Easy Push. If he has TT, so be it, you lose your stack.

But he's going to have A5 or a terribly played big pair here much more often.

I don't understand how you could consider anything but pushing here.

[okayplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can't call raises with mid pairs if you intend to do anything other than shove all your money in the pot and dance in the street when you get a board like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you not find MP2's actions bizarre to say the least? What do you put him on?

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]
I do think it is a little strange. I would probably put him on AA, A5, TT or maybe AT. There's a chance he is trying to steal the pot away from you with overcards, but I bet he has some type of hand here. I think I may call the raise and check call the river. I'm a little conflicted about pushing it in on the turn... I think you will get called by A5 and TT and will probably force the other hands out. I think if you call the raise and check the river, you're getting him to bet his worse hands (and probably will bet more with the hands that you beat, and value bet less with TT) for you. There's a risk of him checking on the river as well, but I think he will only do that with a hand that wouldn't have called the push on the turn nor a value bet on the river.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I may call the raise and check call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
There's a risk of him checking on the river as well,

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize that I have position on the villian, right?

Garland

[Siawyn]

TT is always possible there, but that's just an unfortunate turn of events. I'd probably just call the raise, and hope he fires again on the river. Given that the stats imply that he's pretty loose, A5 could definitely be a hand here. You're either far ahead, or crushed by one likely hand (TT) -- I fear that a reraise could lose your customer if he doesn't have TT. But if he did have TT, that would be a really large reraise to be making there. So I'm just not fearing it.

Yeah... I'd just call the raise and see how he deals with the river.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I may call the raise and check call the river

[/ QUOTE ]

I call the raise and BET the river...

[soah]

Not too long ago I recall writing a series of rants about how I didn't care much for calling raises with small pocket pairs and everyone disagreed with me, saying that set over set isn't anything to worry about and you'll double up so frequently with a set that it will make you plenty of money to cover all of the other hands.

But yet, there are constantly new hands posted where someone has flopped a set and they are scared to get their money in. The only reason to call the raise preflop is because you're hoping your opponent has a big hand that they'll overplay postflop. If your opponent would not play an overpair in this aggressively, then you shouldn't have bothered seeing the flop! What exactly was your plan for this hand?

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
Not too long ago I recall writing a series of rants about how I didn't care much for calling raises with small pocket pairs and everyone disagreed with me, saying that set over set isn't anything to worry about and you'll double up so frequently with a set that it will make you plenty of money to cover all of the other hands.

But yet, there are constantly new hands posted where someone has flopped a set and they are scared to get their money in. The only reason to call the raise preflop is because you're hoping your opponent has a big hand that they'll overplay postflop. If your opponent would not play an overpair in this aggressively, then you shouldn't have bothered seeing the flop! What exactly was your plan for this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Soah,

I knew you would write something like this. I feel my call is justified as I know what I'm doing. The key is: if there is enough evidence, can you let go of a set/full house if you have enough of a read that you are beaten?

I think if you can let go of strong hands such as a small set or small full houses with deep stacks, then it further justifies being able to play small to medium pairs.

The question is: Is there enough info on this hand specifically?

Garland