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#81
10-05-2005, 10:53 AM
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On the turn call
This call is easy. In fact, it is a good (if close) call even if he had just called on the flop.
Let's look at that case (where the pot is not bloated by our free card raise). There are about 5.2 BB in the pot after expected rake. Let's make the following assumptions. If we make our straight, we will get two more bets on the river the majority of the time; let's say 80% (though I think that is low considering the times he has a set and we win more than 2). So 4/46 of the time, we win an average of 7 BB. If we pair (either card) we will just call a bet. One of the cards is good most of the time (let's say 90% this time). So 3/46 *90% we win 6.2BB and 3/46*110% we lose 2BB (10% for the "good" one not being good and 100% for catching the not good one and paying off). The remaining 36/46, we only lose this one bet on the turn since we fold the river. Add it all up and we get a +EV of .047BB. Close, but positive. Add in the bloated pot from QTip's flop play and this call is very +EV. 
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#82
10-05-2005, 11:28 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
When I 3-bet in the SB, he can't possibily be ahead PF with A-6o [/ QUOTE ] You obviously know this to be true since you know your own range. However, in a 4-handed game against an aggressive BB I wouldn't assume this to always be true. [ QUOTE ] Calling the turn against what he knew to be a 22/14/2.8 seems -EV to me too, since he can't even be sure that his A is good. I think we could say that his ace is good for maybe 2 outs. So he is calling a 7.5-1 when he is about an 8-1 dog. Where is the EV in this play? I don't get it. [/ QUOTE ] This is a very easy turn call when you figure implied odds in. I've discussed this hand with Qtip on IM at length and I basically told him I thought his flop raise was wrong but otherwise everything seemed just fine. And I don't think the flop raise is horrible. Certainly if you'll give a free card with A-high then a case can be made since this flop likely missed you. But I would just call and then probably muck the turn unimproved.
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#83
10-05-2005, 11:47 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
I've discussed this hand with Qtip on IM at length and I basically told him I thought his flop raise was wrong but otherwise everything seemed just fine. And I don't think the flop raise is horrible. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I wish we would talk about the flop some more. Everyone is focusing on the turn call, which is pretty easy in my opinion. The flop play is the only debatable moment for hero (except maybe preflop, but preflop is boring). * Should hero raise the flop or just call? * If hero raises and villain just calls, should hero fire again on the turn or take the free card? * Should hero consider capping for a free card? I am still not convinced the flop raise is wrong. We have a decent number of outs, and we might fold some better aces like AJ with a bet on the turn. Also don't forget it is possible villain is getting aggressive a hand like KQ or QJs or something. We are playing four handed. There is a chance hero is ahead. Also debatable is the river for SB. Should he bet/fold, bet/call, or check/call.
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#84
10-05-2005, 12:18 PM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I've discussed this hand with Qtip on IM at length and I basically told him I thought his flop raise was wrong but otherwise everything seemed just fine. And I don't think the flop raise is horrible. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I wish we would talk about the flop some more. Everyone is focusing on the turn call, which is pretty easy in my opinion. The flop play is the only debatable moment for hero (except maybe preflop, but preflop is boring). * Should hero raise the flop or just call? * If hero raises and villain just calls, should hero fire again on the turn or take the free card? * Should hero consider capping for a free card? I am still not convinced the flop raise is wrong. We have a decent number of outs, and we might fold some better aces like AJ with a bet on the turn. Also don't forget it is possible villain is getting aggressive a hand like KQ or QJs or something. We are playing four handed. There is a chance hero is ahead. Also debatable is the river for SB. Should he bet/fold, bet/call, or check/call. [/ QUOTE ] I think mixing the thoughts of free cards and pushing people off a hand is inconsistent. There's not a hand that he 3 bet me with there PF that I'll push him off of. The chance for the 3 card is also pretty low, and it's much more likely I'll get 3 bet, though as others mentioned here, the attempt isn't horrible...just probably not a good idea. And I've decided I would have called the turn even if I just peeled the flop.
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#85
10-05-2005, 12:56 PM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
I think mixing the thoughts of free cards and pushing people off a hand is inconsistent. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. You should only raise for one reason or the other. I was just saying that raising for a free card is another way to play the hand, just like only calling on the flop is another way to play the hand. [ QUOTE ] There's not a hand that he 3 bet me with there PF that I'll push him off of. [/ QUOTE ] If this is really true, then I do not think villain is playing well. [ QUOTE ] The chance for the 3 card is also pretty low, and it's much more likely I'll get 3 bet, though as others mentioned here, the attempt isn't horrible...just probably not a good idea. [/ QUOTE ] What range do you put him on? Even if you give him a narrow range, he missed more than he hit. AK-AJ, KQ = 64 combos (miss) AA-88 = 39 combos (hit) It is a math problem then to decide if the free card play is pofitable. It might be close since we have ~30% equity in the pot, but probably a little worse than just calling against this range. If you start adding AT/A9/KJ type hands into the mix, the free card raise is probably better than just calling.
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#86
10-05-2005, 01:01 PM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think mixing the thoughts of free cards and pushing people off a hand is inconsistent. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. You should only raise for one reason or the other. [/ QUOTE ] I think you're both fundamentally wrong about this. /mc
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#88
10-05-2005, 01:43 PM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think mixing the thoughts of free cards and pushing people off a hand is inconsistent. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. You should only raise for one reason or the other. [/ QUOTE ] I think you're both fundamentally wrong about this. /mc [/ QUOTE ] Expose the error in the thinking then please.
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#89
10-05-2005, 01:51 PM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
I usually like to have A8o to play this hand from cutoff. A6o is pushy but it depends on the players who are not described. Certainly this SB makes the raise unattractive.
The flop raise is awful. Just call and see the next card. If you also call many of your good hands you put pressure on him to either give you some free cards or walk into a lot of turn raises. The turn call is correct. Most of the time one of your cards is good and you have seven outs. You don't know which card you need to hit but that doesn't mean you don't have outs. Because he could have AA, AT, TT, or 88 some discount is in order. Let's call it 6.5 outs with 7.5-1 pot odds and 8-1 implied odds. The implied odds consider $2 rake, winning 1-2 bets when you hit the gutshot, winning 1 bet when you hit the right card, and losing 1 bet for hitting the wrong card. Once in a while you will also grab a pot when KQ or something doesn't bet the river.
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#90
10-05-2005, 01:59 PM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
Just to clarify: the concensus is that the flop raise is bad for the reason that a 3-bet from the villain is very likely, so the raise will not yield a free card? Does this also imply that, when in a h/d blind battle, it is generally a bad idea to attempt the free-card raise?
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