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View Poll Results: 5 vs 12 | |||
Steve Lyons | 29 | 29.29% | |
Stu Scott | 70 | 70.71% | |
Voters: 99. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1
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Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand
Paul Philliips says bet it, baby , bet it.
[ QUOTE ] On barch's elimination hand danenman open-raised with 77 and hachem bravely flat called with JJ, leading barch to jam with A6. I might have posted about this before but after danenman flat called the all-in I think hachem made a huge mistake by not jamming and getting heads-up. It would have been so sweet if danenman had bet hachem out of the pot when the queen hit the turn and promoted his pair over barch's ace-high. Oh how I hope if I'm ever playing for $7.5M that everyone thinks we have an agreement not to bet without monsters in elimination situations. [/ QUOTE ] Interesting. Initially (when I made this post) I was thinking the same thing. But after going through the math it doesn't appear to be nearly as clear any more. I agree with him that it would have been hilarious if Dannenmann had broken the implicit collusion pact and bet on the turn, thereby winning the main pot. |
#2
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Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand
[ QUOTE ]
Paul Philliips says bet it, baby , bet it. [ QUOTE ] On barch's elimination hand danenman open-raised with 77 and hachem bravely flat called with JJ, leading barch to jam with A6. I might have posted about this before but after danenman flat called the all-in I think hachem made a huge mistake by not jamming and getting heads-up. It would have been so sweet if danenman had bet hachem out of the pot when the queen hit the turn and promoted his pair over barch's ace-high. Oh how I hope if I'm ever playing for $7.5M that everyone thinks we have an agreement not to bet without monsters in elimination situations. [/ QUOTE ] Interesting. Initially (when I made this post) I was thinking the same thing. But after going through the math it doesn't appear to be nearly as clear any more. I agree with him that it would have been hilarious if Dannenmann had broken the implicit collusion pact and bet on the turn, thereby winning the main pot. [/ QUOTE ] I liked your analysis and mostly agree -- i think its very close. Only nitpicks would be -- 1) I think Barch was probably a significantly tougher competitor for Hachem than Danneman was -- meaning the value in eliminating him makes his equity significantly stronger in those scenarios, and 2) for most people, the utility value of money goes up more at lower amounts, meaning that the difference in value to Hachem between 5 million and 2.5 million is likely to be more than the value between 7.5 million and 5 million, to use a simplified example. Also, its very possibly that he was able to narrow either Danneman's or Barch's range down further here based on tells or the way they were playing, and as such be able to make a better decision once the flop came. -g |
#3
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Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand
I think many of you are failing to consider that Hachem probably considered Barch his greatest obstacle since Dannenman was just an amateur. Getting Barch, another pro, out was huge.
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#4
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Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand
[ QUOTE ]
Only nitpicks would be -- 1) I think Barch was probably a significantly tougher competitor for Hachem than Danneman was -- meaning the value in eliminating him makes his equity significantly stronger in those scenarios, and 2) for most people, the utility value of money goes up more at lower amounts, meaning that the difference in value to Hachem between 5 million and 2.5 million is likely to be more than the value between 7.5 million and 5 million, to use a simplified example. Also, its very possibly that he was able to narrow either Danneman's or Barch's range down further here based on tells or the way they were playing, and as such be able to make a better decision once the flop came. [/ QUOTE ] Very good points. The reason I made the thread was not really this exact situation per say, but more so because if I was faced with a similar situation, I wanted to know what to do. I tried not to factor in player ability in my analysis but your point is valid. Barch being a better player than Dannenmann makes a softplay more correct. Also it's true that $EV does not equate with EU, which would make a softplay more appealing. One thing to keep in mind is that first prize also comes with the bracelet. Aggressive play would increase the chances of placing first and winning the bracelet, as well as placing third. |
#5
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Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand
[ QUOTE ]
2) for most people, the utility value of money goes up more at lower amounts, meaning that the difference in value to Hachem between 5 million and 2.5 million is likely to be more than the value between 7.5 million and 5 million, to use a simplified example. [/ QUOTE ] This is the key here. Situations like these are once-in-a-lifetime-events. $EV is clearly the wrong concept here and as we know the chip EV concept would be very wrong here. It comes only down to Hachem's risk-utility-function. Then a lot of things come into play which we might not be aware of. Maybe he owed somebody a huge amount of money, let's say 2,5 Mio. Then I personally would be happy with a 2nd place and desolated with coming in 3rd. Maybe he had a backing deal where he had to share only up to 3rd place money. For example, Dannenmann was accused of not using his big stack at the final stages of the tourney and giving away the win. His decision to play a bit too tight in the light of the ICM-model could also well have been very rational. |
#6
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Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand
i would call preflop and bet the flop.
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#7
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Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand
Lets say I am given one of these choices:
Choice A: 20% of the time, win nothing 60% of the time, win $2 20% of the time, win $5 (EV $2.20) Choice B: 40% of the time, win nothing 20% of the time, win $2 40% of the time, win $5 (EV $2.40) I pick B. Multiply the amounts by 1 million and give me the choice once in my life, and I pick A. For nearly $2 million in the hand, I'll check it down and give Dannenman a shot to outdraw me. |
#8
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Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand
[ QUOTE ]
Lets say I am given one of these choices: Choice A: 20% of the time, win nothing 60% of the time, win $2 20% of the time, win $5 (EV $2.20) [/ QUOTE ] Dunno if this was supposed to eb a specific example or not, but if it was, then these percentages are off by quite a bit. |
#9
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Re: WSOP Hachem JJ Hand
Yeah I know the percentages don't match those in this hand, just trying to show why I wouldn't make the decision just based on EV.
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#10
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Observations
I saw the hand on TV last night.
I ran the calculations to figure out how EV- the cooperation play was and I still get about 3% EV- for Hachem to check it down against Barch's and Dannenmann's ranges. ~ $200,000 $EV- assuming Dannenmann cooperates all the way otherwise its much more $EV-. I urge you to do this calculation if its not intuitively obvious to you and you can't get to the number (clearly slightly EV-). I suppose many players will give up EV to fold up the most important notch in the most important tournament. I could see on their faces as they checked the hand down how they were thinking they wouldn't have to work another day in their lives if they could just fold up another notch. Given the straightforward way that Dannenmann played, I doubt he would have smooth called Barch's push with QQ-AA. This significant observation leaves only 3 sets that beat Hachem after the flop (9 hands out of ~250-300), so with my limited read its about ~$400,000 EV-. Overall a very disappointing hand which characterized a very disappointing final table (aside from the fact that I bet on Andrew Black). It's a shame the prizes are so large and the fields so big that it affects the play. Certainly not world class poker. |
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