Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair

i'd 3-bet here because we're def going to find out whether we're ahead or behind.

if it's raised, we're behind and folding is not a bad option.
if it's called, the chances of us gettin a free show down is good enough to justify the 3 bet i think.

if we call, the river will bet bet. that's 4 bb from the turn/river. are we going to fold the river unless we spike a J?

if we 3 bet, three things can happen: the villain can fold, call, raise.

if he folds we win. that's good.
if he calls, we can check/call the river- will cost us the same as calling down.
if he raises, we can fold for a cost of 3 bets. at this pt are we getting enough pot odds to justify to call a cap and the bet on the river?

For those who want to fold in the face of this sudden aggression, what hand do you put him on that -

a) includes a 9
b) is played by someone with 14% VP$P
c) is good enough to call a raise OOP from the small blind, but not good enough to re-raise?

Outside of pocket 9's, I can't think of any. And if that's what he had - well, that's poker.

If he's the typical fish who plays 40-50% VP$P and has no concept of position, then yes, I can easily put him on a hand with a 9 here. But he's not...

[kiemo]

I can definitely see SB playing A9s and maybe K9s from the SB if he thinks Hero has been stealing alot on the table.

This is tough to put him on a nine though with his numbers. A tight aggressive player will typically lead the flop with a nine hoping the preflop raiser reraises then go for the check raise on the turn. Waiting till the turn to check raise your trips is such a fish move and if the guy was a 30+ VPIPer I would say he has a nine everytime.

but if it's capped on the turn, do you see the SB with 55 or 66?

[DMBFan23]

I bet the turn but where is the love in this thread for 87s?

[MrWookie47]

If we know that he'll bet the river if we call, but he'll fold if we make it three bets, then it's clearly not correct to 3bet.

[DMBFan23]

I know the mantra lately is 'get to showdown no matter what with top pair or better' but I don't think 14 VP$IP players at 1/2 level are getting cute that often on paired turns. I'd fold when you get checkraised

[ QUOTE ]
but if it's capped on the turn, do you see the SB with 55 or 66?

[/ QUOTE ]

That becomes more of a possiblity if he caps (66 more so than 55). Either way, if he caps it, I definitely slow down on the river, unless another Jack hits. (and if the jack hits and he had 99 after all, it's another trip to the computer store for a new mouse...)

And for some humorous reason, I can just see the Villian on some other board - "I flopped quads, and this guy 3-bets me on the turn!! Can you believe that?" [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
I know the mantra lately is 'get to showdown no matter what with top pair or better' but I don't think 14 VP$IP players at 1/2 level are getting cute that often on paired turns. I'd fold when you get checkraised

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is exactly why I will C/R here with AK on occasion when the conditions are right (HU against a relatively loose pre-flop raiser). One of three things will happen -

1. He folds outright because he's scared of the paired board, and I've just stolen the pot. I'm actually surprised at the number of times this has worked - especially if I know the other person likes to lead out each street with nothing.

2. He calls, and I can usually get a free showdown by checking the river again, as he fears another C/R.

3. He 3-bets, and I make it clear I was bluffing by immediately folding. Everybody sees this, and when I do get my monster hand, I get a lot more action than I would otherwise.

Now, obviously, I don't do this a lot, but it is a nice way to mix things up once in a while.