Waiting for turn - 2 examples

[Preytar]

Hand #1:

Raise the flop. If your read on UTG+1 is solid, he's not going anywhere, and we can punish the flush/straight draws.


Hand #2:

I raise the flop to prevent what happened to you on the river. I'm fully expecting UTG to flip over a Qx flush.

I think you got the action that you wanted based on your plays. I just hope my reads on the other players are wrong.

Brian

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There is a possible flush draw, and a possible straight draw. That's it. It's not a given that there's a flush draw, and the straight draw is low, making it less likely. In SSH, waiting was called for in the TT hand because there was a straight draw, a flush draw AND overcards that could come, significantly reducing the equity of TT. There aren't that many scare cards in your AJ hand.

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I was thinking more along the lines of this hand where "da man" waits for the turn with an overpair.

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...t=all&vc=1

Is this example way with an overpair way different than my example with TP?

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Yes the example is a little different b/c your top pair happens to be an ace.


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It seems to me that my hand is much more vulnerable than Ed Miller's hand in that post. Sure people could pick up a draw on the turn, but with a raise on the flop MP1 and MP2 are getting 5.5:1 odds on the flop which is more than enough for their str8 or flush. With the way the action worked out I guess they're still getting 5:1 on the turn, but with only 1 card to come I feel my top pair has a much higher edge than it did on the flop. Also, bottom / middle pairs would be much quicker to release when facing 2 or 3 cold on the turn rather than just 1 (protecting my hand from those pesky 5-outers).


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I don't think you're counting the pot odds right (if you raise the flop there will be 17SB in the pot, so MP1 will be getting 8.5:1), but that is not so important.

I do think you are taking protecting the hand thing a little bit too far. If our hand is currently best then we have a big equity edge on the flop and should be pushing it. I think this is super important b/c a lot of these guys will pay one or two bets on the flop with basically nothing hoping to pick up a draw, but will fold on the turn. So lets get their money when we can. Waiting for the turn to give MP1 and MP2 incorrect odds to draw to their 5 outer or whatever really isn't as important IMO compared to all the bets we lose by not raising the flop.

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I do think you are taking protecting the hand thing a little bit too far. If our hand is currently best then we have a big equity edge on the flop and should be pushing it. I think this is super important b/c a lot of these guys will pay one or two bets on the flop with basically nothing hoping to pick up a draw, but will fold on the turn. So lets get their money when we can. Waiting for the turn to give MP1 and MP2 incorrect odds to draw to their 5 outer or whatever really isn't as important IMO compared to all the bets we lose by not raising the flop.

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Oops, you are right about miscounting outs ... my mistake it's 8.5 if I raise on the flop. I think the problem that I get faced with in these loose passive games is, when should I be worried about protecting my hand and try a play like this, and when should I just push my edge. I usually go off of pot size and how many ways I can be beat. In this case I was looking at 15sb with flush and straight outs to beat me ... in what situations should I think about protecting in this manner? In other words, what would have to be different about this hand in order to make call-flop/raise-turn a better line than raise-flop/bet-turn?

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I do think you are taking protecting the hand thing a little bit too far. If our hand is currently best then we have a big equity edge on the flop and should be pushing it. I think this is super important b/c a lot of these guys will pay one or two bets on the flop with basically nothing hoping to pick up a draw, but will fold on the turn. So lets get their money when we can. Waiting for the turn to give MP1 and MP2 incorrect odds to draw to their 5 outer or whatever really isn't as important IMO compared to all the bets we lose by not raising the flop.

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Oops, you are right about miscounting outs ... my mistake it's 8.5 if I raise on the flop. I think the problem that I get faced with in these loose passive games is, when should I be worried about protecting my hand and try a play like this, and when should I just push my edge. I usually go off of pot size and how many ways I can be beat. In this case I was looking at 15sb with flush and straight outs to beat me ... in what situations should I think about protecting in this manner? In other words, what would have to be different about this hand in order to make call-flop/raise-turn a better line than raise-flop/bet-turn?

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I am a pretty good winner at 1/2 over the long term (though I am in a current slump), and right or wrong I am not waiting for the turn all that often. There is just so much value in raising the flop in most cases and people will call with anything on the flop in general.

When I do wait for the turn is if my hand is more vulnerable to weak draws (i.e. I have AJ on a jack high board, or 1010 or JJ as an overpair), the pot big, and I am pretty certain I will be bet into on the turn letting me face the majority of the field with two bets. Once in a while I wait for the turn with big overpair hands if the pot is really big. I do think I have gotten away from this a little too much and need to start thinking about it a little more when I'm playing.

IMO the the thing to keep in mind is that by protecting your hand you are buying a % of the pot if people fold, or extra fractions of a bet if they call incorrectly. So it all comes down to EV, so you need to think, what is the EV of raising the flop for value vs. EV of protecting my hand. And it comes down to a lot of factors and each situtaiton is alittle bit different.

Maybe others will have better answers.

Hand 1: The pot is 15sb to you on the flop. A raise will give players behind you 8.5:1, making it unprofitable to call with gut shots, Ax, and bdfd which are out there . The pot is too large to make calling with a flush draw unprofitable with a turn raise anyway. So you should raise the flop.

Hand 2: The flop is safe, pot isn't large, and a raise will blow away 4 potential callers, so a slowplay looks fine.

[jakbse]

Hand 1: There's no way to protect on the flop since the implied odds are huge. Raising for value could be an option but that would spoil the possibility to protect it on the turn. I think the way you played it is fine.

Hand 2: The pot is small, the threat I can see is a possible gutshot from the blinds. The turn card is not very good for you, I would raise to protect, but I don't like the cap since it does nothing to protect and we may be behind a made straight already and a flush draw is quite likely.

I think hand 2 is pretty straight forward. You want to build a big pot with this kind of hand. A raise faces the field with two cold and will get some VERY thin draws to fold that would have otherwise called. Even if somebody catches up with some straight/flush draw on the turn you'll have a redraw to your boat as well that has many outs. Protecting here is +EV, but letting thin draws see a cheap card with the intent of raising the turn is +++++EV.

In hand 1, raising the flop isn't going to push out any sort of draw, but neither is raising the turn -- the pot is just too big. You just want to pump the pot with as many chips as possible. I like both lines here actually, then. Raising the flop is good because you probably have the best hand and have a large equity in this pot. However, many drawing hands are coming in with you and a majority of the action will happen before you on the turn. If the turn is favorable you can go ahead and raise it confident that you have the best hand, however, if it's a scare card and a lot of action happens before it gets to you you can release and feel pretty good about it. The major point here is that most of the action needs to happen before you on the turn...so it wouldn't be horrible with hand 1 given here, but it would be better if you were on the button.

*grunch*
1. Raise the flop.
2. I play the same.

[Solovon]

I raise the flop on both hands, especially the first. On the PP beginner tables, you flop something like that and you jam the pot like there's no tomorrow.

On the first hand, the gutshots will probably wait until the turn to fold no matter what you do, so you might as well get more money in the pot on the flop. Any quality straight or flush draws are staying in until the river no matter how many bets you put in. Push your edge and get the money in the pot.