*Official* WCCOP #2 (Sweat, Updates, Etc)

[ClaytonN]

Worse hands won't call a river raise, better hands will. Fairly standard river play if villain has a lot behind.

Keep it up Jason and Darrell!

[Sponger15SB]

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Worse hands won't call a river raise, better hands will. Fairly standard river play if villain has a lot behind.

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You are a really big idiot.

[mlagoo]

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Worse hands won't call a river raise, better hands will.

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huh?

[paperboyNC]

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I thought this was a pretty wierd play. Can't figure it out. Especially considering the fact that even if the guy does have the absolute nuts here, Giga has t150k left if he gets the guy allin.

pretty bizarre. there are a lot of hands he might get called by here that he beats.

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Giga only had 36k more than him. Giga may not have realized he had the second nuts?

[AlphaWice]

Lets do some math.

Seat 7: GigaBet (247111 in chips)
Seat 9: bogg (211967 in chips)

When bogg bets 42k on the river, if it was just called, there would be 159000 in the pot. Thus, before there is 117k in the pot.

Now bogg put 75k in from his stack, so he has 136k behind. Giga has 214k behind *before calling*.

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Suppose bogg has the nuts x% of the time, not the nuts but will call a potraise by giga y% of the time, (and 1-x-y of the time, he folds to a potraise by giga.)

CALLING:

He puts in 75k total.

+84k pot 1-x of the time. (159 - 75)
-75k pot x of the time.

POTRAISE:

He puts 211k into the pot. (136 + 75)
[We can assume that the potraise puts bogg all in, even though it doesn't, because he calls such a marginal bet anyway.]

+84k , 1-x-y of the time.
-211k , x of the time.
220k, y of the time.

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So we must compare:

84(1-x) - 75(x) vs.
84(1-x-y) -221(x) + 220y

It is equivalent to compare 84y + 221x to 75x + 220y,
or 146x to 136y.

So if x/y > 136/146, then it is better to call.

A more intuitive statement is 146/136 > y/x.

So it is better to push if he calls an all in more times than he has the nuts. What do you think? Does villian fold to an all in?

[ClaytonN]

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Does villian fold to an all in?

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I think no, and I listed my reasons. Bugstud gives a good counterpoint, but that dissolves into a neverending metagame i'm doing if he's doing thing.

[bugstud]

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Does villian fold to an all in?

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I think no, and I listed my reasons. Bugstud gives a good counterpoint, but that dissolves into a neverending metagame i'm doing if he's doing thing.

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that should be an easy fold with aces because all he beats is a bluff

[mlagoo]

strassa knocks out giga and has almost 300k in chips, good for 2nd in the tourney. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[DeadMoneyOC]

GG. 6655 against a guy who appeared to be passive PF though? ycuk.