I KNOW I'm getting checkraised...

[pudley4]

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Also I think you seriously overestimate how often he checkraises based on the results.

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As soon as he checked the turn, I thought I'm getting checkraised here. Would he lead the flop with overcards after I capped preflop? No, he lead out because he has a pair and now he wants to c/r me

Whether that thought process is usually right or not, I don't know; but that's the exact thought I had when I played the hand.

[Danenania]

It's an understandable thought to have, it's just that no good player is checking this turn with a pair unless it's a misclick or he is seriously out to lunch. This to me decreases the odds that he's really a good player by a lot and correspondingly ups his potential hands to the point that I'm NOT giving a free card with 88 on such a dangerous board.

[DMBFan23]

Jeff thinks he should be betting A high on the turn because he might have the best hand, you think he should be checking it with outs. but, you'll have pairs here a lot too. so...

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This to me decreases the odds that he's really a good player by a lot and correspondingly ups his potential hands to the point that I'm NOT giving a free card with 88 on such a dangerous board.

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maybe villain has AA and figures he's on a freeroll if you check behind Ax and you might call it on the river, with the nice benefit that he gets to c/r you if you have any pair and get called down. also you might bet your A high and then you call with the overcard and gutshot.

he knows you're not going to raise him on the turn except with maybe KK after the way the action has gone down so far, so he makes an extra bet versus betting. especially if he has the As, I really think check raising the turn with AA is a decent play here, especially if you can parlay that into some free cards OOP later.

[Danenania]

It's possible I suppose but A.) I would expect AA to usually c/r the flop. Leading isn't bad but c/ring is much more common. So I think the lead shows some weakness. B.) Checking still isn't a good play. Considering OP's claim of 99% certainty of a looming c/r, it seems like a pretty transparent attempt. And we've seen in this thread that even many 2+2ers are considering checking behind with a PP. It simply gives up too much value against hands that would call a bet but check behind when checked to. C.) AA is not really "freerolling" against Ax. Freerolling means you are tied and only you have outs to win. In this case AA is beating Ax and the Ax has 4 outs to take away half the pot. There's a big difference.

[Mig]

If he has AA and he thinks the other guy has a pair or A high, on such a board he doesn't have to check the turn to have the other guy call a river bet. Most players will call down with A high and any pocket. You don't have to give free card...