taking your coinflips......1000 nl

[pzhon]

The SB didn't just reraise you. The SB pushed with the BB, intial raiser, and you left to act. Would the SB do that with KQ?

A good free tool to use for this type of situation is PokerStove. Against the range AA-JJ, AK, AQs, your equity is 35.5% with TT (or 36.2% if you kill an ace). If you call, you get back an average of $386 for your $480 investment. If you believe this hand range, folding is better by $94.

With only $127 in dead money, you need to win 44.2% to call. You don't win that much against someone loose enough to push with AA-TT, AK-AJ. You need someone to be willing to push with AT or KQ or 99 or weaker in order to call, or someone who would not push with a higher pair.

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
What percentage of the time would you have to be right (he does in fact have overcards) to make this play? Greater than 90%?



This is a simple math problem. Don't ask me, figure it out for yourself. Don't forget to take into account the money already in the middle.


[/ QUOTE ]

Having a little difficulty (my post chinese food coma might have a little something to do with it), if anyone wants to help out it would be much appreciated.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you are dead accurate and he does in fact have overcards, I still wouldn't call. Sure you are ahead, but who cares, why take 50/50 on half a buyin when you could take much better odds on more money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Figure out the EV for when he has two overcards. Now tell me exactly why AZK is right to fold when he knows his opponent has overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to be willing to take +EV gambles to make the maximum in NL hold'em.

If opponent flashes ace-king to you, you should instacall.

The problem isn't calling when he has overcards, it's calling when he DOESN'T have overcards.

You'll note that ElD said he would fold here, because of the possibility of the latter scenario.

[-Skeme-]

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...amp;m_id=65562

[ZeeJustin]

Everything El Diablo has said is not only correct, but should be obvious to a player winning at the 1000 NL level.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
What percentage of the time would you have to be right (he does in fact have overcards) to make this play? Greater than 90%?



This is a simple math problem. Don't ask me, figure it out for yourself. Don't forget to take into account the money already in the middle.


[/ QUOTE ]

Having a little difficulty (my post chinese food coma might have a little something to do with it), if anyone wants to help out it would be much appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

caveat: i'm bad at math

so we're facing 480 more to play a final pot size of 1080. we close the action headup so no wories about getting fizzlefucked three ways. We'll ignore the rake for now.

we're paying 480 to win 1080 (520 twice and 40 dead from MP) so we need 44.444% pot equity against his hand range in order to make this an EV neutral call. really this should be a tiny bit higher to to rake, but meh.

making a few assumptions:

1. we've got 55% pot equity against overcards in general (like for example i think we're actually in worse shape against like KQs then AKs etc.)

2. we've got 20% equity against overpairs. little higher or lowr depending on uit domination, but, again, meh.

3. he won't do this without overcards or an overpair. like we'll never see 72o. if this isnt the case we can solve for a 3d curve, but not a percentage (as the profitable % he has overcards depends on both the times he has overpair and times we have one. in our case every time he doesn't have overcards he has an overpair, so they're directly related, so really only one free variable.)

ok, so we need .44444 and we have .2 or .55. x=fraction of times he has just overcards.

.444444 = .2(1-x) + .55(x)
.444444 = .35x + .2
.244444 = .35x
x = 69.854% or more that he has overcards to make this an EV neutral or +EV move

that number seems low to me, but whatever. in my head i guesstimated it would be high 70's.

either way, i doubt he has AK ~twice as often as a bigger pair than TT here. in fact, i'd guess it was the other way around. so do like zee, diablo and all the good players say and fold.

fim

[edge]

Really easy fold. If you reraised and the original raiser pushed over you, it becomes a little easier to call (I still fold, depending on the exact pot odds), but in this situation I toss the cards easily.

[captZEEbo1]

I'm just curious as to all you people who are saying "routine fold"....How often have you seen AA-JJ play a hand this way? If you've never made the call HOW DO YOU KNOW? I've been making this type of call a lot lately, and have NEVER been up against an overpair. Maybe I've just been "running hot" with my calling allins with hands like TT. If a specific opponent was really smart, they'd be able to really exploit specifically me (noticing I assume pushes are AK and not AA and are willing to call allins with hands like TT). To the person that said hand ranges include AQs-AJ, I've never seen that play either (unless villain stack was 20 bbs or less). Everyone just assumes that AK will call an allin, so they would not want to push AQ, which is potentially dominated by AK. So I'd say the range is AK and JJ+...however, I don't think it's fair to use pokerstove. It's VERY rare to see AA play it that way....wouldn't they rather just pot reraise it and give people a chance to make a mistake preflop? After all, everyone loves AA and loves seeing a flop with it. Everyone hates AK because they NEVER hit a flop with it.

Also, nobody seemed to mention stack size of villain. On average, don't you guys notice that when your opponents aren't fully stacked, they're usually not that good at poker. I make generalizations that when an opponent is sitting around with 20 bb's, he's playing a certain style. If he's sitting around with 40-50 bb's he's playing another style. If he has 100 bb's or more he's playing another style.

I've also been shown hands like 44 and J3s too....although for 44 the opponents stack size was around 300, and for J3s the opponent was on tilt I correctly assumed.

[ QUOTE ]
It could be advantageous, but one can never be sure that he has overcards without an overpair, so I would fold.

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-If someone pushed at your flop bet, and you held middle set, would you fold, because you can never be SURE he didn't have top set? You really have to look at his likely holdings. I think his most likely holding is specifically AK, and it's a lot more likely than you guys think. I just can't imagine that calling here is -EV.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious as to all you people who are saying "routine fold"....How often have you seen AA-JJ play a hand this way?

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot.

[captZEEbo1]

Another comment...everyone that posted about math forgot about the BB which is worth $10. I can't believe almost nobody thinks this is a call. If I saw any data for a range of hands for these push plays, I'd be willing to reconsider my stance.