Flop decision

[meep_42]

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I'd bet and hope best case scenerio, to get it checked to me on the turn if I completely whiff. May fold some hands you want out of there too (qj, kt, kj, etc). Plus I find when I check here, sometimes the turn goes bet-stealraise, and you gotta fold a hand that might be more live than you think.

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I think there's zero chance that a bet folds any two-overcard hand. The only hands that may fold are small pairs that didn't hit the board.

-d

[Sarge85]

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A c/r isn't hurting our hand...imo, it helps us.


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me too.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[QTip]

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Exactly, people need to get their hands dirty on this board, else the preflop call sucks.

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I disagree. With these small suited broadway, we need to see the larger streets in order to see our hand develop...it's a drawing hand before the flop even comes. Someone made a big mistake giving us an opportunity to get a free card, and we can expoit that mistake by simply taking it.

[QTip]

...and what about the times that you check and the turn checks around anyway...it happens.

[Sarge85]

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Exactly, people need to get their hands dirty on this board, else the preflop call sucks.

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it's a drawing hand before the flop even comes. Someone made a big mistake giving us an opportunity to get a free card, and we can expoit that mistake by simply taking it.

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So are flush draws, and OE Str8 draws - but you bet those for value on the flop. - I think we have enough ways to improve that we can value bet here as well.

Take the free cards on the turn.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[wrto4556]

Nothing bad comes from betting. But by checking we give everyone a free card and our nice draw gets downgraded.

We should do whatever possible to try and protect our hand(I realize it's hard to do from this position, but it helps us tremendously if someone folds incorrectly). Plus we have the added benifit of getting a free card on the turn, which is alot better than the flop free card.

[Piiop]

It's true that a checkraise helps us by folding out a lot of better hands (AJ/KJ/QJ/AT/KT/QT/JT/small pairs), but how often can we count on a checkraise, how often will the checkraise be a set or 2pair (reducing our outs/equity), and will the equity we gain from cleaning up our outs be worth more than the 2 SB's we put in to get it, and how often do these hand have to fold (that is, sometimes people will still call 2)? Also, if we're check-raised, we won't get a free card.

(I don't know the answers and would be interested in seeing the work done, but I dont feel like doing it right now.)

[QTip]

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Exactly, people need to get their hands dirty on this board, else the preflop call sucks.

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it's a drawing hand before the flop even comes. Someone made a big mistake giving us an opportunity to get a free card, and we can expoit that mistake by simply taking it.

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So are flush draws, and OE Str8 draws - but you bet those for value on the flop. - I think we have enough ways to improve that we can value bet here as well.

Take the free cards on the turn.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

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I'm giving myself about 6 outs in this hand, which is signficantly different than a FF or OESD. One thing that I do like about this hand, though, that I hadn't thought about before, is the fact that we have 2 of the overcards in a serious redraw on the turn. For example, if a King falls, I now have a double gutshot, and if a Q falls, I now have any OESD, so this hand does have more value than I initially thought.

However, I don't know why we never talk about taking free cards on the flop. The are times for it and I think this is one of them. There have been many times when I've been in a situation like this and kicked up a serious hornets nets...something like I bet, a blind raises and PFRer makes it 3 and I go "whoops".

[meep_42]

I think a lot of people are overestimating the time you get a free river card by a bet on the flop -- I just don't think it happens nearly often enough to be worthwhile here. Though, most of the scare cards will give you even more outs (T,J,Q,K + clubs).

Making this play and betting most of the time was pretty much my standard play at 2/4, but at 3/6, it seems that if you don't take the free card when it's offered on the flop, you won't get it at all.

However, it with all the backdoors + overcards, I think you probably do have a small equity edge here.

(K,Q (no club) [6] - gives you 4 more outs)
(clubs [8] - give you 9 outs)
(Kc/Qc [2] - give you 13 outs)
(J,T [6] - give you TP, which may be the best hand + 5 outs if not)

I'm estimating 11% equity from back doors alone, not even counting when a J/T gives us the best hand. (But also not counting the times we make 2-pair and lose to a straight)

Add in 7% for the gutshot (since we'll likely get odds to see the river), and there's a very slight equity edge.

Good hand, bet it.

-d
[friggin Q beat me to it. That's what I get for working. :P )

[DMBFan23]

this reminds me of nate's T9s hand where he made some great arguments for bet, but in this hand there are more overcards that can call here, there ar emore opponents which lessens the chance of winning with just a pair, and more opponents which leaves more customers if you spike a club or an 8. so, I take the free card, as I did in that hand.